Mlada Boleslav
vs
Teplice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Teplice
The model makes it 40% Mlada Boleslav, 28% draw, 32% Teplice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.68, Teplice 1.35.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Mlada Boleslav are 3rd on 17 points from 8 games; Teplice are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Teplice have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hradec Králové.
- Last 6 meetings: Mlada Boleslav 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Teplice.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
Teplice
- W2-0away to Hradec Králové20 September 2026
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Zlin6 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec30 August 2026
- L0-2Zbrojovka Brno23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mlada Boleslav scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice
- 23 May 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–2 TepliceCzech Liga
- 15 February 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 13 September 2025Teplice 2–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 4 May 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 8 February 2025Mlada Boleslav 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 1 September 2024Teplice 1–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Teplice
Mlada Boleslav
- M. Šubert6 goals1 assist
- J. Klíma4 goals1 assist
- S. John3 goals3 assists
Teplice
- John Auta4 goals
- M. Pulkrab3 goals1 assist
- L. Mareček3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.71 for Teplice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.35 for Teplice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.92 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Teplice rate 0.90 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mlada Boleslav a 1.4% chance of the title and Teplice 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.35 for Teplice. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.2 for Teplice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mlada Boleslav at home · Teplice away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Mlada Boleslav 8, Teplice 9.
Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Teplice have let in 4 there.
Teplice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mlada Boleslav
- at Slavia Praha24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 18%
- vs Hradec Králové1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at FK Jablonec8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
Teplice
- vs Artis24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 57%
- at Slovácko31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 42%
- vs Pardubice8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 45%
- at Baník Ostrava21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.