Slavia Praha
vs
Hradec Králové
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slavia Praha 2–0 Hradec Králové
The model makes it 56% Slavia Praha, 26% draw, 18% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.05, Hradec Králové 0.70.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Slavia Praha are top on 23 points from 9 games; Hradec Králové are 9th on 14 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Plzen.
- Hradec Králové have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Teplice.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Hradec Králové 3–1 Slavia Praha.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové
Slavia Praha
- W2-1Plzen20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sparta Praha30 August 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190522 August 2026
Hradec Králové
- L0-2Teplice20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zlin13 September 2026
- D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Praha6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zbrojovka Brno2 September 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hradec Králové conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 23 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové
- 17 May 2026Hradec Králové 3–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2026Hradec Králové 2–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 20 July 2025Slavia Praha 2–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 5 April 2025Slavia Praha 2–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 3 November 2024Hradec Králové 1–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 28 April 2024Hradec Králové 1–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak5 goals1 assist
- M. Chytil4 goals
- T. Chorý4 goals
Hradec Králové
- T. Slončík3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.15 against 6.72 for Hradec Králové. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Slavia Praha and 0.70 for Hradec Králové. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.39 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hradec Králové rate 0.72 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slavia Praha a 92.4% chance of the title and Hradec Králové 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.70 for Hradec Králové. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.39/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.97 for Hradec Králové.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slavia Praha at home · Hradec Králové away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slavia Praha 9, Hradec Králové 9.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Hradec Králové have let in 2 there.
Hradec Králové score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Praha
- at Fenerbahçe20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Mlada Boleslav24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 58%
- at FK Jablonec31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 54%
Hradec Králové
- vs FK Jablonec25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 41%
- at Mlada Boleslav1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 31%
- vs Sigma Olomouc7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
- at Slovácko22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.