Pardubice
vs
Zlin
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Pardubice 2–1 Zlin
The model makes it 45% Pardubice, 28% draw, 27% Zlin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pardubice 1.77, Zlin 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Pardubice are 13th on 8 points from 9 games; Zlin are bottom on 1 point from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Pardubice are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bohemians 1905.
- Zlin have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FK Jablonec.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Pardubice 3–1 Zlin.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pardubice vs Zlin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pardubice at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pardubice vs Zlin
Pardubice
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
- L1-2Artis29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sigma Olomouc23 August 2026
Zlin
- D1-1away to FK Jablonec20 September 2026
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
- L0-1Slovan Liberec22 August 2026
What these results say
- Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zlin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Zlin
- 25 April 2026Pardubice 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 25 October 2025Zlin 2–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 4 May 2024Pardubice 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 14 April 2024Zlin 1–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 4 November 2023Pardubice 0–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 21 May 2023Pardubice 1–2 ZlinCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pardubice carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.41 for Zlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Pardubice and 1.11 for Zlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pardubice rate 0.71 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zlin rate 0.68 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Pardubice against 1.11 for Zlin. Pardubice's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for Zlin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pardubice at home · Zlin away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Pardubice 9, Zlin 9.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Zlin have let in 5 there.
Zlin score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Pardubice have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pardubice
- at Plzen25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 23%
- vs Slovan Liberec31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Teplice8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 27%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
Zlin
- vs Sigma Olomouc24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 28%
- at Artis31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 37%
- vs Slovácko7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Mlada Boleslav21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.