FC Schalke 04
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Schalke 04 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 26% FC Schalke 04, 29% draw, 45% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 0.94, VfB Stuttgart 1.40.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to VfB Stuttgart: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Schalke 04's rating is built from 9 Bundesliga matches and VfB Stuttgart's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- FC Schalke 04 are 17th on 6 points from 9 games; VfB Stuttgart are 8th on 12 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Schalke 04 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Werder Bremen.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Schalke 04 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended FC Schalke 04 2–1 VfB Stuttgart.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
VfB Stuttgart at 45%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim8 November 2026
- L0-2RB Leipzig31 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- W1-0Werder Bremen7 November 2026
- W4-2away to Bayer Leverkusen31 October 2026
- L2-3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Schalke 04 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Schalke 04
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 33% today
VfB Stuttgart
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart
FC Schalke 04 and VfB Stuttgart have met 6 times in the records we hold, FC Schalke 04 has won 2 of them to VfB Stuttgart's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
FC Schalke 04 won the last one 2–1 on 25 Feb 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Feb 2023
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 2–1 VfB Stuttgart - 3 Sep 2022
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–1 FC Schalke 04 - 27 Feb 2021
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 5–1 FC Schalke 04 - 30 Oct 2020
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 1–1 VfB Stuttgart - 18 May 2019
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–0 VfB Stuttgart - 22 Dec 2018
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–3 FC Schalke 04
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, VfB Stuttgart's attack rates 107% above FC Schalke 04's, and FC Schalke 04 concede 14% fewer than VfB Stuttgart. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.55 | 0.80 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.14 | 0.93 |
Leading scorers: FC Schalke 04 and VfB Stuttgart
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Schalke 04 a 0% chance of the title and VfB Stuttgart 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 against 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart. FC Schalke 04's attack/defence rating is 0.55/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.93 for VfB Stuttgart.
How the model reaches 45% for VfB Stuttgart to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for VfB Stuttgart to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Schalke 04's ratings add 4 points and VfB Stuttgart's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- FC Schalke 04's ratings35%+4
- VfB Stuttgart's ratings45%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Schalke 04 at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC Schalke 04VfB Stuttgart
FC Schalke 04 are 17th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 7th and 17th so far); VfB Stuttgart are 8th after 9 (between 7th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Schalke 04 9, VfB Stuttgart 9.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 2 there.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); FC Schalke 04 have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Schalke 04
- at SC Paderborn 0728 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs Borussia Dortmund6 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- at Hamburger SV11 Dec · Bundesligawin 29%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach20 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt9 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
VfB Stuttgart
- at Inter25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 16%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt28 Nov · Bundesligawin 51%
- at SV Elversberg6 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs Lille9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Union Berlin12 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.