Udinese
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Udinese 0–2 AS Roma
The model makes it 17% Udinese, 24% draw, 59% AS Roma — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Udinese 0.82, AS Roma 2.01.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Udinese are 15th on 4 points from 6 games; AS Roma are 3rd on 14 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Udinese are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Torino.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Como.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 February 2026, ended Udinese 1–0 AS Roma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Udinese vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 59% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 927 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Udinese vs AS Roma
Udinese
- L1-2away to Torino12 October 2026
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
AS Roma
- D0-0away to Como11 October 2026
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
What these results say
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Udinese
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
AS Roma
Chance to win the league · 41% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Udinese
AS Roma and Udinese have met 6 times in the records we hold, AS Roma has won 5 of them to Udinese's 1.
The record
Udinese won the last one 1–0 on 2 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| Udinese | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Feb 2026
Serie AUdinese 1–0 AS Roma - 9 Nov 2025
Serie AAS Roma 2–0 Udinese - 26 Jan 2025
Serie AUdinese 1–2 AS Roma - 22 Sep 2024
Serie AAS Roma 3–0 Udinese - 25 Apr 2024
Serie AUdinese 1–2 AS Roma - 26 Nov 2023
Serie AAS Roma 3–1 Udinese
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Udinese and AS Roma
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Udinese carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.34 for AS Roma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Udinese and 2.01 for AS Roma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Udinese rate 1.02 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Roma rate 1.54 and 0.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Udinese a 0% chance of the title and AS Roma 41%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Udinese against 2.01 for AS Roma. Udinese's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.54/0.58 for AS Roma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Udinese at home · AS Roma away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
UdineseAS Roma
Udinese are 15th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 15th so far); AS Roma are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Udinese 6, AS Roma 6.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); AS Roma have let in 0 there.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Udinese have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Udinese
- at Venezia6 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
- at Bologna22 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
AS Roma
- at Manchester United3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.