Birmingham
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Birmingham 2–0 Bolton
The model makes it 61% Birmingham, 23% draw, 16% Bolton — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Birmingham 2.11, Bolton 0.87.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: Birmingham are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Birmingham's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Bolton's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Birmingham are top on 29 points from 15 games; Bolton are 18th on 17 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Swansea.
- Bolton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Derby.
- Last 6 meetings: Bolton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 March 2025, ended Bolton 3–1 Birmingham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Birmingham vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
Birmingham at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Birmingham vs Bolton
Birmingham
Championship
- W2-1Swansea7 November 2026
- W3-0Millwall3 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lincoln31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
Bolton
Championship
- L1-3away to Derby6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Charlton3 November 2026
- L2-3Bristol City31 October 2026
- L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
- Bolton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top two · 39% today
Bolton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Bolton
Birmingham and Bolton have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bolton has won 3 of them to Birmingham's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bolton won the last one 3–1 on 4 Mar 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Bolton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 Mar 2025
League OneBolton 3–1 Birmingham - 22 Oct 2024
League OneBirmingham 2–0 Bolton - 12 Feb 2019
ChampionshipBirmingham 0–1 Bolton - 22 Aug 2018
ChampionshipBolton 1–0 Birmingham - 3 Apr 2018
ChampionshipBolton 0–1 Birmingham - 15 Aug 2017
ChampionshipBirmingham 0–0 Bolton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Birmingham's attack rates 19% above Bolton's, and Birmingham concede 38% fewer than Bolton. That gives Birmingham the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Bolton | 0.70 | 1.67 |
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Bolton
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Birmingham a 21.8% chance of the title and Bolton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Birmingham against 0.87 for Bolton. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.67 for Bolton.
How the model reaches 61% for Birmingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Birmingham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Birmingham's ratings add 8 points and Bolton's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Birmingham's ratings50%+8
- Bolton's ratings61%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Birmingham at home · Bolton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BirminghamBolton
Birmingham are 1st after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 15th so far); Bolton are 18th after 15 (between 1st and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Birmingham 15, Bolton 15.
Birmingham score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Bolton have let in 1 there.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Birmingham have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Birmingham
- at Charlton5 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Watford8 Dec · Championshipwin 60%
- at Portsmouth12 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
Bolton
- vs Blackburn5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- at Swansea8 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Wrexham11 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.