Austria Lustenau
vs
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Lustenau 0–2 Rapid Vienna
The model makes it 13% Austria Lustenau, 18% draw, 69% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 7.69, 5.56 and 1.45.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 0.96, Rapid Vienna 2.82.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Rapid Vienna are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Austria Lustenau's rating is built from 12 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Rapid Vienna's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Austria Lustenau are 8th on 11 points from 12 games; Rapid Vienna are top on 33 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Grazer AK.
- Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 6-0 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
- Last 5 meetings: Rapid Vienna 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended Rapid Vienna 5–1 Austria Lustenau.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna
Has the model earned this number?
Rapid Vienna at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga
- W2-1Grazer AK7 November 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg1 November 2026
- L1-5away to Rapid Vienna24 October 2026
- L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
- L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga
- W6-0Wolfsberger AC6 November 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna1 November 2026
- W5-1Austria Lustenau24 October 2026
- W3-1TSV Hartberg16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026
What these results say
- Austria Lustenau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Austria Lustenau had three goals or more.
- Austria Lustenau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 11 |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austria Lustenau
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
Rapid Vienna
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 62% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna
- 24 October 2026Rapid Vienna 5–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 3 March 2024Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 7 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–5 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 29 October 2022Austria Lustenau 3–3 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 7 August 2022Rapid Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
Rapid Vienna
GoalsAssists
- E. Kara71
- P. Dahl71
- T. Adamsen55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austria Lustenau a 0% chance of the title and Rapid Vienna 62.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 2.82 for Rapid Vienna. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.02 for Rapid Vienna.
How the model reaches 69% for Rapid Vienna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rapid Vienna to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Austria Lustenau's ratings add 20 points and Rapid Vienna's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Austria Lustenau's ratings51%+20
- Rapid Vienna's ratings69%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Austria Lustenau at home · Rapid Vienna away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Austria LustenauRapid Vienna
Austria Lustenau are 8th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); Rapid Vienna are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Austria Lustenau 12, Rapid Vienna 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Austria Lustenau
- at Wolfsberger AC6 Dec · Bundesligawin 33%
- vs TSV Hartberg11 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg23 Jan · Bundesligawin 13%
- at SCR Altach30 Jan · Bundesligawin 27%
Rapid Vienna
- vs Lask Linz5 Dec · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Ried12 Dec · Bundesligawin 68%
- at TSV Hartberg23 Jan · Bundesligawin 48%
- vs Austria Vienna30 Jan · Bundesligawin 70%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.