FSV Mainz 05
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 18% FSV Mainz 05, 19% draw, 63% Bayern München — fair odds of 5.56, 5.26 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.27, Bayern München 2.76.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FSV Mainz 05's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and Bayern München's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- FSV Mainz 05 are 5th on 10 points from 6 games; Bayern München are top on 14 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Schalke 04.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to RB Leipzig.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 63% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
Bayern München
Bundesliga
- W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
- W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayern München scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayern München had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 |
| 1 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05 have met 5 times in the records we hold, Bayern München has won 3 of them to FSV Mainz 05's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bayern München won the last one 4–3 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 4.20 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München - 14 Dec 2025
BundesligaBayern München 2–2 FSV Mainz 05 - 26 Apr 2025
BundesligaBayern München 3–0 FSV Mainz 05 - 14 Dec 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 2–1 Bayern München - 30 Oct 2024
DFB PokalFSV Mainz 05 0–4 Bayern München
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 1.76 | 0.67 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.03 | 1.01 |
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz50
- S. Becker23
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise52
- H. Kane45
- L. Díaz41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FSV Mainz 05 carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.34 for Bayern München. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.76 for Bayern München. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.03 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayern München rate 1.76 and 0.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FSV Mainz 05 a 0.1% chance of the title and Bayern München 66%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 2.76 for Bayern München. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.67 for Bayern München.
How the model reaches 63% for Bayern München to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bayern München to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, FSV Mainz 05's ratings take away 1 point and Bayern München's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- FSV Mainz 05's ratings32%−1
- Bayern München's ratings63%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05 at home · Bayern München away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05 are 5th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 7th so far); Bayern München are 1st after 6 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FSV Mainz 05 6, Bayern München 6.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Bayern München have let in 0 there.
Bayern München score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); FSV Mainz 05 have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FSV Mainz 05
- at FC Augsburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Union Berlin28 Nov · Bundesligawin 55%
- at RB Leipzig5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
Bayern München
- vs 1. FC Köln20 Nov · Bundesligawin 81%
- at Lille25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.