Göztepe
vs
Başakşehir
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Göztepe 1–2 Başakşehir
The model makes it 36% Göztepe, 25% draw, 39% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Göztepe 1.65, Başakşehir 1.76.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 956 settled matches.
A tight game: Göztepe and Başakşehir are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Göztepe's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Başakşehir's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 721 matches.
Key facts
- Göztepe are 13th on 9 points from 8 games; Başakşehir are 10th on 11 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Göztepe are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Kocaelispor.
- Başakşehir are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Gaziantep FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Başakşehir 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Başakşehir 2–1 Göztepe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Göztepe vs Başakşehir
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Göztepe vs Başakşehir
Göztepe
Süper Lig
- W2-1away to Kocaelispor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
Başakşehir
Süper Lig
- W2-1Gaziantep FK18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
- W4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
What these results say
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
- Göztepe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Başakşehir had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Göztepe
Başakşehir and Göztepe have met 6 times in the records we hold, Başakşehir has won 3 of them to Göztepe's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Başakşehir won the last one 2–1 on 7 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| Göztepe | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 7 Mar 2026
Süper LigBaşakşehir 2–1 Göztepe - 5 Oct 2025
Süper LigGöztepe 1–0 Başakşehir - 28 Apr 2025
Süper LigGöztepe 4–1 Başakşehir - 30 Nov 2024
Süper LigBaşakşehir 4–1 Göztepe - 25 Feb 2023
Friendlies ClubsGöztepe 0–0 Başakşehir - 20 Dec 2022
Türkiye KupasıBaşakşehir 3–1 Göztepe
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Göztepe | 0.94 | 1.35 |
Leading scorers: Göztepe and Başakşehir
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan51
- André Henrique31
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Göztepe carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.82 for Başakşehir. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Göztepe and 1.76 for Başakşehir. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Göztepe rate 0.94 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Başakşehir rate 1.00 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Göztepe a 0% chance of the title and Başakşehir 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Göztepe against 1.76 for Başakşehir. Göztepe's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.06 for Başakşehir.
How the model reaches 39% for Başakşehir to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Başakşehir to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Göztepe's ratings add 11 points and Başakşehir's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Göztepe's ratings41%+11
- Başakşehir's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Göztepe at home · Başakşehir away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GöztepeBaşakşehir
Göztepe are 13th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Başakşehir are 10th after 8 (between 1st and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Göztepe 8, Başakşehir 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Göztepe
- at Erzurumspor FK22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 40%
- vs Trabzonspor30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- at Kasımpaşa7 Dec · Süper Ligwin 30%
Başakşehir
- vs Çorum FK23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 50%
- at Eyüpspor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 60%
- vs Fenerbahçe5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.