Atletico San Luis
vs
FC Juarez
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atletico San Luis 2–0 FC Juarez
The model makes it 60% Atletico San Luis, 22% draw, 18% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 2.23, FC Juarez 0.99.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,485 settled matches.
Edge to Atletico San Luis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Atletico San Luis's rating is built from 48 Liga MX matches and FC Juarez's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 794 matches.
Key facts
- Atletico San Luis are 10th on 19 points from 14 games; FC Juarez are bottom on 5 points from 14 games — Liga MX.
- Atletico San Luis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Atlante FC.
- FC Juarez have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Necaxa.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Juarez 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended FC Juarez 2–1 Atletico San Luis.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico San Luis at 60% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX
- W1-0away to Atlante FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Club Queretaro21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026
- L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
FC Juarez
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Necaxa24 October 2026
- L0-1Atlante FC21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026
- D1-1Club Tijuana10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis.
- FC Juarez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 19 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 33 | -24 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico San Luis
Chance to finish in the top eight · 41% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez have met 6 times in the records we hold, FC Juarez has won 4 of them to Atletico San Luis's 2.
The record
FC Juarez won the last one 2–1 on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 |
| FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
Liga MXFC Juarez 2–1 Atletico San Luis - 1 Nov 2025
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 1–2 FC Juarez - 8 Mar 2025
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 1–0 FC Juarez - 28 Oct 2024
Liga MXFC Juarez 2–4 Atletico San Luis - 8 Apr 2024
Liga MXAtletico San Luis 2–3 FC Juarez - 26 Oct 2023
Liga MXFC Juarez 3–2 Atletico San Luis
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 0.74 | 1.34 |
| FC Juarez | 0.57 | 1.75 |
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis
GoalsAssists
- Rafa Llorente41
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico San Luis carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.29 for FC Juarez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Atletico San Luis and 0.99 for FC Juarez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico San Luis rate 0.74 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Juarez rate 0.57 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,189 correct results out of 4,550 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico San Luis the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Atletico San Luis against 0.99 for FC Juarez. Atletico San Luis's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.75 for FC Juarez.
How the model reaches 60% for Atletico San Luis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico San Luis to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Atletico San Luis's ratings take away 16 points and FC Juarez's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Atletico San Luis's ratings29%−16
- FC Juarez's ratings60%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico San Luis at home · FC Juarez away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atletico San Luis 13, FC Juarez 14.
Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Juarez have let in 8 there.
FC Juarez score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atletico San Luis
- at Puebla21 Nov · Liga MXwin 36%
FC Juarez
- vs Atlas21 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.