Athletic Club
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Athletic Club 1–0 Espanyol
The model makes it 47% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 24% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.44, Espanyol 0.86.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Athletic Club's rating is built from 49 La Liga matches and Espanyol's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Athletic Club are 7th on 16 points from 11 games; Espanyol are 13th on 12 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Osasuna.
- Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
- Last 6 meetings: Athletic Club 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Athletic Club vs Espanyol
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 47%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Athletic Club vs Espanyol
Athletic Club
La Liga
- D1-1away to Osasuna7 November 2026
- W2-1Real Sociedad1 November 2026
- W4-0Getafe25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
Espanyol
La Liga
- D0-0Deportivo La Coruna7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Villarreal30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander24 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Madrid17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Espanyol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Espanyol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Espanyol
Athletic Club and Espanyol have met 6 times in the records we hold, Athletic Club has won 3 of them to Espanyol's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Espanyol won the last one 2–0 on 13 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 13 May 2026
La LigaEspanyol 2–0 Athletic Club - 22 Dec 2025
La LigaAthletic Club 1–2 Espanyol - 16 Feb 2025
La LigaEspanyol 1–1 Athletic Club - 19 Oct 2024
La LigaAthletic Club 4–1 Espanyol - 8 Apr 2023
La LigaEspanyol 1–2 Athletic Club - 18 Jan 2023
Copa del ReyAthletic Club 1–0 Espanyol
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Athletic Club's attack rates 26% above Espanyol's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Espanyol | 0.78 | 0.91 |
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Espanyol
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Athletic Club against 0.86 for Espanyol. Athletic Club's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.91 for Espanyol.
How the model reaches 47% for Athletic Club to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Athletic Club to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Athletic Club's ratings add 4 points and Espanyol's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Athletic Club's ratings45%+4
- Espanyol's ratings47%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Athletic Club at home · Espanyol away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Athletic ClubEspanyol
Athletic Club are 7th after 11 La Liga matches (between 7th and 19th so far); Espanyol are 13th after 12 (between 2nd and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Athletic Club 11, Espanyol 12.
Espanyol score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Athletic Club have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Athletic Club
- at Malaga28 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
- vs Real Madrid6 Dec · La Ligawin 21%
- at Deportivo La Coruna13 Dec · La Ligawin 32%
- vs Real Betis20 Dec · La Ligawin 35%
- at Racing Santander3 Jan · La Ligawin 44%
Espanyol
- vs Getafe30 Nov · La Ligawin 43%
- at Alaves6 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Celta Vigo13 Dec · La Ligawin 38%
- at Valencia20 Dec · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Barcelona3 Jan · La Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.