Newcastle
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal
The model makes it 17% Newcastle, 24% draw, 59% Arsenal — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Newcastle 0.84, Arsenal 2.03.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Newcastle's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Arsenal's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Newcastle are 12th on 12 points from 10 games; Arsenal are top on 27 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fulham.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Hull City.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newcastle vs Arsenal
Newcastle
Premier League
- D1-1away to Fulham7 November 2026
- L0-1Everton2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Crystal Palace25 October 2026
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
Arsenal
Premier League
- W1-0Hull City7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Liverpool1 November 2026
- W2-0Everton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had two goals or fewer.
- Arsenal won every one of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Newcastle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Arsenal
Chance to win the league · 63% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Newcastle
Arsenal and Newcastle have met 6 times in the records we hold, Arsenal has won 4 of them to Newcastle's 2.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 1–0 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Newcastle | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueArsenal 1–0 Newcastle - 28 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 1–2 Arsenal - 27 Jul 2025
Friendlies ClubsArsenal 3–2 Newcastle - 18 May 2025
Premier LeagueArsenal 1–0 Newcastle - 5 Feb 2025
League CupNewcastle 2–0 Arsenal - 7 Jan 2025
League CupArsenal 0–2 Newcastle
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Arsenal's attack rates 37% above Newcastle's, and Arsenal concede 51% fewer than Newcastle. That gives Arsenal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Arsenal
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newcastle a 0% chance of the title and Arsenal 62.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Newcastle v Arsenal has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 16% / 23% / 61% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 17% / 24% / 59%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Newcastle win17%▲ +1
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Arsenal win59%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Newcastle against 2.03 for Arsenal. Newcastle's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/0.52 for Arsenal.
How the model reaches 59% for Arsenal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arsenal to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Newcastle's ratings add 15 points and Arsenal's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Newcastle's ratings47%+15
- Arsenal's ratings59%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Newcastle at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NewcastleArsenal
Newcastle are 12th after 10 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Arsenal are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Newcastle 10, Arsenal 10.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle
- at Brighton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Manchester United2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Sunderland6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Ipswich12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Brentford19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
Arsenal
- vs Borussia Dortmund24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 65%
- vs Manchester City29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Brentford2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Tottenham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Real Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.