Weekend preview, 17-18 October: Manchester City the surest call of 418 matches
Our model has a prediction for 418 matches this weekend (17-18 October), across 67 competitions. It is surest about Manchester City: 75% to beat Ipswich, most likely 3-0. 46 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- Real Betis vs Barcelona (La Liga, Saturday 16:30 UTC): 30% / 26% / 44%, most likely 1-2.
- Brentford vs Liverpool (Premier League (England), Saturday 14:00 UTC): 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1.
- Everton vs Chelsea (Premier League (England), Saturday 11:30 UTC): 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1.
- Newcastle vs Aston Villa (Premier League (England), Saturday 16:30 UTC): 33% / 24% / 43%, most likely 1-2.
- Leeds vs Manchester United (Premier League (England), Sunday 13:00 UTC): 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2.
The surest calls
- Manchester City vs Ipswich (Premier League (England)): Manchester City at 75%, most likely 3-0.
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League (Ukraine)): Shakhtar Donetsk at 74%, most likely 2-0.
- Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk (Premier League (Belarus)): Dinamo Minsk at 71%, most likely 2-0.
- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie): PSV Eindhoven at 70%, most likely 1-3.
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla (La Liga): Real Madrid at 69%, most likely 2-0.
For scale: calls the model rated at 65% or more have landed 63% of the time, across 321 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Brentford vs Liverpool (Premier League (England)): 38% / 27% / 35%.
- Valencia vs Athletic Club (La Liga): 36% / 30% / 34%.
- FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga (Germany)): 37% / 28% / 35%.
- Swansea vs West Ham (Championship (England)): 36% / 30% / 34%.
- Watford vs Charlton (Championship (England)): 33% / 32% / 35%.
And 41 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.