Watford
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 1–0 Charlton
The model makes it 38% Watford, 32% draw, 30% Charlton — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Watford 1.12, Charlton 0.87.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Watford are 20th on 8 points from 8 games; Charlton are 9th on 12 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bristol City.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Watford 1–1 Charlton.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Watford vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Watford at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Watford vs Charlton
Watford
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
Charlton
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
What these results say
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Charlton
- 6 April 2026Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 9 August 2025Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 17 January 2015Watford 5–0 CharltonChampionship
- 13 September 2014Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 29 April 2014Charlton 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 14 September 2013Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Charlton
Watford
- Amin Nabizada3 goals
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Watford carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.42 for Charlton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Watford and 0.87 for Charlton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 0.57 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlton rate 0.53 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charlton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Watford the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Watford against 0.87 for Charlton. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.3 for Charlton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Watford at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Watford 8, Charlton 8.
Watford score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Charlton have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Watford
- at Wolves24 Oct · Championshipwin 22%
- at Norwich31 Oct · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Lincoln3 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Charlton
- vs Norwich24 Oct · Championshipwin 33%
- at Middlesbrough31 Oct · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Bolton3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.