Weekend preview, 26-27 September: Switzerland the surest call of 76 matches
Our model has a prediction for 76 matches this weekend (26-27 September), across 9 competitions. It is surest about Switzerland: 66% to beat FYR Macedonia, most likely 0-2. 9 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- England vs Spain (UEFA Nations League, Saturday 18:45 UTC): 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 1-2.
- Norway vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 18:45 UTC): 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2.
- Denmark vs Wales (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 16:00 UTC): 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1.
- Austria vs Kosovo (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 16:00 UTC): 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 2-1.
- Slovenia vs Scotland (UEFA Nations League, Saturday 13:00 UTC): 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0.
The surest calls
- FYR Macedonia vs Switzerland (UEFA Nations League): Switzerland at 66%, most likely 0-2.
- Slovakia vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League): Slovakia at 57%, most likely 2-0.
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United (Major League Soccer): Vancouver Whitecaps at 57%, most likely 2-0.
- Nashville SC vs Toronto FC (Major League Soccer): Nashville SC at 54%, most likely 2-0.
- Stockport County vs Peterborough (League One): Stockport County at 53%, most likely 2-1.
For scale: calls the model rated at 50% or more have landed 55% of the time, across 943 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
National-team predictions are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking and not yet calibrated against our own record, so read those as the weakest numbers on this list.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Norway vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League): 35% / 28% / 37%.
- Slovenia vs Scotland (UEFA Nations League): 36% / 30% / 34%.
- Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan (UEFA Nations League): 35% / 32% / 33%.
- Valladolid vs Cordoba (Segunda División): 36% / 29% / 35%.
- Wycombe vs Reading (League One): 37% / 27% / 36%.
And 4 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.