27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Referee: Ramy Touchan
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 2-0 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Nashville SC, 26% draw, 20% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nashville SC at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nashville SC99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Hany Mukhtarassist: Cristian Espinoza
16'
⚽Hany Mukhtarassist: Sam Surridge
43'
45'
🔁Lewis Morganout: Alonso
63'
🔁Nickseon Gomisout: Kobe Franklin
🔁Elias Saadout: Shakur Mohammed
71'
73'
🔁Dániel Sallóiout: Emilio Aristizábal
73'
🔁Jonathan Osorioout: Alejandro Piedrahita Díaz
🔁Cristian Espinozaout: Alex Muyl
78'
Sam Surridge
81'
🔁Edvard Sandvik Tagsethout: Bryan Acosta
86'
🔁Andy Najarout: josh bauer
87'
87'
🔁Theo Corbeanuout: Derrick Etienne Jr.

Match stats — Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

62%Possession38%
23Shots11
11On target3
9Corners3

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 23J. KnightD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 95W. MackayG
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 19A. MuylM
  • 17Owen PresthusD
Coach: B. Callaghan
Toronto FC 4-4-2
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 7T. CorbeanuM
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 20D. SallóiM
  • 90L. MorganF
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 99J. VilsaintF
  • 76L. StefanovicD
  • 27A. PiedrahitaF
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
Coach: R. Fraser

Form going into Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

Nashville SC

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
  • D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
  • W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
  • W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
  • D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nashville SC had three goals or more.
  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC3221836623+4371
11Toronto FC32912115060-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

  • 9 September 2026Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2025Nashville SC 1–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 May 2025Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 June 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 May 2024Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Toronto FC

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge181
  • H. Mukhtar167

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC beat Toronto FC 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Nashville SC at 54%. The goals: Hany Mukhtar 16' for Nashville SC, Hany Mukhtar 43' for Nashville SC.

How the call on Nashville SC v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 13 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, up 14 points.

  1. Nashville SC win54%▲ +14
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Toronto FC win20%▼ −11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.