Toluca
vs
Santos Laguna
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Toluca 1–0 Santos Laguna
The model makes it 46% Toluca, 28% draw, 26% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Toluca 1.78, Santos Laguna 1.03.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Toluca wins, grey are draws, red are Santos Laguna wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Toluca
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
Santos Laguna
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
- 15 January 2026Toluca 3–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 17 July 2025Santos Laguna 2–4 TolucaLiga MX
- 7 April 2025Toluca 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 23 September 2024Santos Laguna 2–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 22 February 2024Toluca 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 6 November 2023Santos Laguna 3–1 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Santos Laguna
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Santos Laguna
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Toluca carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.51 for Santos Laguna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Toluca and 1.03 for Santos Laguna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toluca rate 0.83 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos Laguna rate 0.67 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toluca a 29.6% chance of the title and Santos Laguna 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toluca the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Toluca against 1.03 for Santos Laguna. Toluca's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.32 for Santos Laguna.