21 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result

Toluca
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Toluca 2-3 Santos Laguna.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Toluca, 29% draw, 26% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toluca at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toluca3%Draw93%Santos Laguna4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Federico Viñasassist: Alexis Vega
25'
Nicolás Castro
38'
⚽João Paulo Dias Fernandesassist: Alexis Vega
43'
45+1'
⚽Ezequiel Bullaude
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
45+4'
•Everardo Lopez
45+7'
Everardo Lopez
45+7'
45+8'
Facundo Cáseres
45'
🔁Emmanuel Echeverriaout: Diego González
45'
🔁Salvador Mariscalout: Francisco Villalba
🔁Alexis Vegaout: Jorge Diaz
66'
🔁Federico Viñasout: Jesús Angulo
66'
69'
🔁L. Gómezout: Kevin Palacios
69'
🔁Ezequiel Bullaudeout: Eduardo Aguirre
75'
🔁Facundo Cáseresout: Javier Guemez
🔁João Paulo Dias Fernandesout: Luan Garcia
81'
86'
⚽Kevin Palaciosassist: Francisco Villalba
🔁Nicolás Castroout: Brian Garcia
90+1'
90+3'
•Eduardo Aguirre
90+5'
⚽Francisco Villalbaassist: Mauricio Cuevas

Match stats — Toluca vs Santos Laguna

46%Possession54%
24Shots22
9On target6
6Corners7

Line-ups

Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GarcíaG
  • 2D. BarbosaD
  • 4B. MéndezD
  • 6F. PereiraD
  • 25E. LópezD
  • 205Edher Guadalupe Segura TéllezM
  • 8N. CastroM
  • 20J. GallardoM
  • 16F. ViñasM
  • 9A. VegaM
  • 26PaulinhoF
Substitutes
  • 23O. VirgenF
  • 29J. DíazM
  • 12R. BeltránG
  • 10J. AnguloM
  • 198J. EstradaF
  • 13LuanD
  • 17B. GarcíaD
  • 15P. PérezM
  • 19S. SimónM
Coach: A. Mohamed
Santos Laguna 5-4-1
  • 1C. AcevedoG
  • 3M. CuevasD
  • 28Jonathan PérezD
  • 18F. PardoD
  • 25Felipe SánchezD
  • 17E. EcheverríaD
  • 10E. BullaudeM
  • 8S. MariscalM
  • 23F. CáseresM
  • 193Luis GómezM
  • 20E. LozanoF
Substitutes
  • 7D. GonzálezF
  • 6J. GüémezM
  • 33H. HolguínG
  • 14E. OronaM
  • 77K. PalaciosM
  • 22K. PicónD
  • 26R. SordoM
  • 21Fran VillalbaM
  • 19E. AguirreF
Coach: Renato Paiva

Form going into Toluca vs Santos Laguna

Toluca

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
  • W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
  • W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026

Santos Laguna

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
  • D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
  • L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Toluca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Toluca won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Santos Laguna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Toluca146532919+1023
10Santos Laguna146172020019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Santos Laguna

  • 15 January 2026Toluca 3–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 17 July 2025Santos Laguna 2–4 TolucaLiga MX
  • 7 April 2025Toluca 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 23 September 2024Santos Laguna 2–0 TolucaLiga MX
  • 22 February 2024Toluca 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX

The full Toluca vs Santos Laguna record →

Leading scorers: Toluca and Santos Laguna

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas70

Santos Laguna

GoalsAssists

  • Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santos Laguna won 3–2 at Toluca. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 45% and given a win for Santos Laguna 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Viñas 25' for Toluca, João Paulo Dias Fernandes 43' for Toluca, Ezequiel Bullaude 45+1' for Santos Laguna, Kevin Palacios 86' for Santos Laguna, Francisco Villalba 90+5' for Santos Laguna. Sent off: Everardo Lopez (Toluca) 45+7'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.