Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Plzen, 24% draw, 27% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Dominik ŤapajG
- 29Adam GabrielD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 2Tobias PališčákD
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 99Amar MemićM
- 20Jiří PanošM
- 12Alexandr SojkaM
- 25Christophe KabongoF
- 19Cheick SouaréM
- 23Baboucarr FaalF
- 18Tomáš LadraF
- 9Denis VišinskýM
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 30Viktor BaierG
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 3Denis VavroD
- 7Salim Fago LawalF
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 32Filip MatoušekD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 19David KozelM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 18Marek HavranM
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaF
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 13Denis DonátD
- 5Harustak JanD
- 14Samuel GrygarM
Form going into Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
Plzen
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
Mlada Boleslav
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
What these results say
- Plzen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
- Mlada Boleslav scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
- 30 November 2025Plzen 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 19 August 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–5 PlzenCzech Liga
- 2 March 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–2 PlzenCzech Liga
- 29 September 2024Plzen 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 5 May 2024Plzen 3–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Mlada Boleslav
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić46
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert71
- J. Klíma41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 3–0. The model had made a win for Plzen its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Christophe Kabongo 2' for Plzen, Stefan Pirgić 21' for Plzen, Baboucarr Faal 86' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 2.75–1.57.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Plzen a 24.6% chance to finish in the top four: 29.0% after a win, 22.1% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.0%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
For Mlada Boleslav the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 43.1% going in: 53.3% after a win, 41.9% after a draw, 38.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.2%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Plzen v Mlada Boleslav has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Plzen win49%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Mlada Boleslav win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Plzen's most recent league matches and Mlada Boleslav's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.