Al-Hazm
vs
NEOM
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hazm 0–1 NEOM
The model makes it 30% Al-Hazm, 29% draw, 41% NEOM — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Al-Hazm 1.16, NEOM 1.58.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Hazm vs NEOM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEOM at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Hazm vs NEOM
Al-Hazm
- L1-3away to Al-Ahli Jeddah11 September 2026
- W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al Shabab30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Ittihad24 August 2026
NEOM
- W4-2Al-Fateh13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Hilal7 September 2026
- W3-0Al Khaleej Saihat3 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Riyadh28 August 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC24 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hazm failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | NEOM | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Hazm and NEOM
Al-Hazm
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
NEOM
- A. Lacazette5 goals1 assists
- A. Koné4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Hazm carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.66 for NEOM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Al-Hazm and 1.58 for NEOM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hazm rate 0.62 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEOM rate 0.78 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hazm a 0% chance of the title and NEOM 4.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEOM the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Hazm against 1.58 for NEOM. Al-Hazm's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.14 for NEOM.