Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Slovan Liberec
The model makes it 71% Zbrojovka Brno, 16% draw, 13% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 2.79, Slovan Liberec 1.15.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zbrojovka Brno
- D1-1away to Plzen1 August 2026
- W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026
Slovan Liberec
- L0-1Teplice1 August 2026
- W3-1away to Plzen25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Slovan Liberec | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovan Liberec
- 23 April 2023Slovan Liberec 3–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 30 October 2022Zbrojovka Brno 3–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 14 May 2021Slovan Liberec 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 22 January 2021Zbrojovka Brno 0–3 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers
Zbrojovka Brno
- D. Vašulín2 goals
- T. Vachoušek1 goals2 assists
Slovan Liberec
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.57 for Slovan Liberec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zbrojovka Brno W-D; Slovan Liberec W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.79 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.15 for Slovan Liberec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zbrojovka Brno rate 1.01 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Liberec rate 0.83 and 1.46.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zbrojovka Brno the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.15 for Slovan Liberec. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.46 for Slovan Liberec.