Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sigma Olomouc, 23% draw, 26% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91J. KoutnyG
- 2A. SyllaD
- 21J. KralD
- 3L. LurvinkD
- 70A. GhaliM
- 88P. BarathM
- 7M. BeranM
- 26S. NoumbissieM
- 39D. JanosekF
- 10V. SejkF
- 24D. TkacF
- 98M. HruskaG
- 33M. MalyD
- 14M. SoldoM
- 20D. GrgicM
- 18J. FialaF
- 80V. ZahradnicekM
- 17J. DembeF
- 19D. Barat
- 8J. SpacilM
- 59J. FloderG
- 13D. DonatD
- 44O. KarafiatD
- 3M. KralikD
- 11M. HybsD
- 19D. KozelM
- 76J. Zika
- 20S. JohnM
- 28D. LanghamerM
- 49J. KolarikM
- 23J. KlimaF
- 42V. VorelG
- 9L. LetenayF
- 70J. BuryanF
- 24D. MaresD
- 17F. SpatenkaF
- 15N. PennerM
- 21M. Subert
- 26M. ZachovalD
- 5J. HarustakD
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to FK Jablonec26 July 2026
Mlada Boleslav
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav
- 4 April 2026Sigma Olomouc 2–4 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 2 November 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–4 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 15 December 2024Mlada Boleslav 1–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 18 August 2024Sigma Olomouc 3–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 16 March 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- V. Sejk43
- A. Ghali41
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert71
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sigma Olomouc at 51% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. John 10' for Mlada Boleslav, D. Tkac 34' for Sigma Olomouc, M. Subert 81' for Mlada Boleslav, V. Sejk 87' for Sigma Olomouc. On expected goals it finished 2.48–1.08.