Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Debreceni VSC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 Debreceni VSC
The model makes it 50% Ferencvarosi TC, 27% draw, 23% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.94, Debreceni VSC 0.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 50% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Gyori ETO FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zalaegerszegi TE17 August 2026
Debreceni VSC
- L2-4Vasas19 September 2026
- W4-2away to Paks5 September 2026
- D2-2MTK Budapest28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Kisvarda FC23 August 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC16 August 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
- 5 April 2026Debreceni VSC 0–2 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 14 December 2025Ferencvarosi TC 0–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 31 August 2025Debreceni VSC 0–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 9 March 2025Debreceni VSC 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 5 December 2024Debreceni VSC 5–4 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 3 November 2024Ferencvarosi TC 2–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
- B. Yusuf2 goals1 assists
Debreceni VSC
- Á. Szendrei4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.42 for Debreceni VSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 0.97 for Debreceni VSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Debreceni VSC rate 0.65 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ferencvarosi TC a 14.3% chance of the title and Debreceni VSC 1.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.97 for Debreceni VSC. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.53 for Debreceni VSC.