Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC NB I prediction & result
Final score: Ferencvarosi TC 1-1 Debreceni VSC.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Ferencvarosi TC, 25% draw, 20% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Ferencvarosi TC at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 90D. DibuszG
- 54O. NagyD
- 28T. RaemaekersD
- 4M. GómezD
- 20CaduD
- 6Á. NagyM
- 11B. YusufM
- 16K. ZachariassenM
- 17M. CorbuM
- 15D. ArzaniM
- 18Á. BagiF
- 19F. KovačevićF
- 7V. BirmančevićF
- 71C. LakatosD
- 10J. LeviF
- 76K. LisztesF
- 72Ádám MadarászM
- 80H. MaïgaM
- 47C. O'DowdaM
- 14A. OsváthD
- 1P. AndreevG
- 23G. TerczaD
- 4J. MejíasD
- 26Á. LangD
- 3Adrián GuerreroD
- 5B. BatikM
- 25S. BaldoniM
- 10B. DzsudzsákM
- 6B. BoškovićM
- 97C. DenesM
- 11Á. SzendreiF
- 99F. CiblaM
- 24I. EgriF
- 12B. ErdélyiG
- 28M. HofmannD
- 66J. JannehM
- 72R. KellerD
- 19D. KocsisM
- 16Sergi SamperM
- 39B. AdinanyF
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
- W4-0Trabzonspor27 August 2026
Debreceni VSC
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Vasas19 September 2026
- W4-2away to Paks5 September 2026
- D2-2MTK Budapest28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Kisvarda FC23 August 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC16 August 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 | Debreceni VSC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC
- 5 April 2026Debreceni VSC 0–2 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 14 December 2025Ferencvarosi TC 0–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 31 August 2025Debreceni VSC 0–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 9 March 2025Debreceni VSC 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 5 December 2024Debreceni VSC 5–4 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
GoalsAssists
- B. Yusuf41
- K. Zachariassen41
- M. Corbu31
Debreceni VSC
GoalsAssists
- Á. Szendrei62
- B. Dzsudzsák42
- C. Denes33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ferencvarosi TC and Debreceni VSC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ferencvarosi TC at 55% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: marius corbu 65' for Ferencvarosi TC, Balazs Dzsudzsak (penalty) 90+5' for Debreceni VSC. On expected goals it finished 1.68–1.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ferencvarosi TC a 35.9% chance to win the league: 39.9% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Debreceni VSC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.8% going in: 27.5% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.1%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ferencvarosi TC v Debreceni VSC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Ferencvarosi TC's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Ferencvarosi TC win55%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Debreceni VSC win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.