Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Zaglebie Lubin, 30% draw, 30% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
Line-ups
- 33Z. AlomerovićG
- 5A. ŁawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 13M. GrzybekM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 8D. DąbrowskiM
- 6D. ČolinaM
- 44M. RegułaM
- 19S. ŁyczkoM
- 18F. SzymczakF
- 1J. BurićG
- 11A. WoźniakM
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 30D. HładunG
- 37S. KerkM
- 26J. KolanM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 88M. MlinarićF
- 12R. LeszczyńskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangréD
- 35M. KamińskiD
- 34Afonso SilvaD
- 21Ž. RogeljM
- 18J. PrširM
- 5Sidnei TavaresM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 57S. AkereF
- 20Ł. SekulskiF
- 23P. KunF
- 41M. WięckowskiD
- 88K. SavvidīsM
- 17A. RadwańskiM
- 7O. KobackiM
- 9D. JurićF
- 16F. HiszpańskiM
- 10S. HamulićF
- 3M. FlisD
- 26J. BurekG
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
- 2 March 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 25 August 2025Wisla Plock 2–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 8 April 2023Wisla Plock 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 18 September 2022Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 18 February 2022Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
The result against the call
Wisla Plock won 2–0 at Zaglebie Lubin. The model had leaned towards a win for Zaglebie Lubin at 40% and given a win for Wisla Plock 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Łukasz Sekulski 44' for Wisla Plock, Said Hamulic 90+4' for Wisla Plock.
How the call on Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla Plock has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Zaglebie Lubin win40%▼ −1
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Wisla Plock win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.