Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Wisla Plock
The model makes it 40% Zaglebie Lubin, 29% draw, 31% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.63, Wisla Plock 1.29.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Zaglebie Lubin wins, grey are draws, red are Wisla Plock wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
Zaglebie Lubin
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
Wisla Plock
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock
- 2 March 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 25 August 2025Wisla Plock 2–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 8 April 2023Wisla Plock 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 18 September 2022Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 18 February 2022Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2021Wisla Plock 4–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zaglebie Lubin carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.65 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.29 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.74 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.89 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zaglebie Lubin a 3.1% chance of the title and Wisla Plock 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.29 for Wisla Plock. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.35 for Wisla Plock.