Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Motor Lublin 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 36% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
Line-ups
- 33G. TratnikG
- 17K. LukoszekD
- 18B. BereszyńskiD
- 39M. BartošD
- 24F. LubereckiD
- 27Y. BourhaneM
- 30M. NdiayeM
- 8C. SimonM
- 7Ivo RodriguesM
- 70M. AïkoM
- 10K. CzubakF
- 5A. AkatovD
- 47Alioune TallM
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
- 23F. HaxhaM
- 6M. ŁęgowskiM
- 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
- 4T. PlavotićD
- 71M. PopaG
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SáčekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20Josema SánchezD
- 21O. ZmrzlýD
- 82K. UrbaÅskiM
- 6M. HøjholtM
- 14J. KubickiM
- 19PeterF
- 9J. AntisteF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 2P. WarczakD
- 18L. SadílekM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 23S. LisethF
- 27Z. InoussaF
- 7Y. Ikia DimiM
- 28B. DonioM
- 4P. BochniewiczD
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
- 8 March 2026Motor Lublin 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 30 August 2025Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 15 March 2025Gornik Zabrze 4–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2024Motor Lublin 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Gornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak60
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
- Peter40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Motor Lublin and Gornik Zabrze drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gornik Zabrze at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Motor Lublin v Gornik Zabrze has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Motor Lublin's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Motor Lublin win35%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Gornik Zabrze win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.