Lech Poznan
vs
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Lech Poznan 2–0 Radomiak Radom
The model makes it 50% Lech Poznan, 27% draw, 23% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.91, Radomiak Radom 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lech Poznan wins, grey are draws, red are Radomiak Radom wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznan
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
Radomiak Radom
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
- D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
- L0-5away to Legia Warszawa14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
- 16 May 2026Radomiak Radom 1–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2025Lech Poznan 4–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 27 April 2025Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2024Lech Poznan 2–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 16 December 2023Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 30 July 2023Lech Poznan 2–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
Radomiak Radom
- R. Wolski3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.51 for Radomiak Radom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.90 for Radomiak Radom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 0.89 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radomiak Radom rate 0.67 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lech Poznan a 19.9% chance of the title and Radomiak Radom 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 0.9 for Radomiak Radom. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.32 for Radomiak Radom.