Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Lech Poznan, 26% draw, 25% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MońkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 9M. IshakF
- 24F. JagiełłoF
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 53K. DelikatM
- 20R. GumnyD
- 11D. HåkansM
- 4João MoutinhoD
- 77L. PalmaM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 59T. YegbeD
- 1F. MajchrowiczG
- 24Z. OuattaraD
- 3K. SzcześniakD
- 72F. KoperskiD
- 13J. GrzesikD
- 28Romário BaróM
- 77C. DonisM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 7C. NunnelyF
- 80Guilherme LuizF
- 90Ronaldo AfonsoF
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 11F. GouréF
- 99B. GradeckiG
- 23K. KarasekM
- 14S. KingueD
- 18ManuF
- 15A. TapsobaF
- 27R. WolskiM
- 8I. CamaráM
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 28 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
- 16 May 2026Radomiak Radom 1–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2025Lech Poznan 4–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 27 April 2025Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2024Lech Poznan 2–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 16 December 2023Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Rodríguez66
- P. Wålemark53
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Radomiak Radom
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 5–1. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Guilherme Luiz 1' for Radomiak Radom, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 3' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 9' for Lech Poznan, Allahyar Sayyadmanesh 41' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 51' for Lech Poznan, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 67' for Lech Poznan.
How the call on Lech Poznan v Radomiak Radom has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lech Poznan win49%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Radomiak Radom win25%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.