20 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Jagiellonia 1-3 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Jagiellonia, 29% draw, 32% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jagiellonia at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Rafał Augustyniak (pen)
20'
⚽Nik Prelec (OG)
⚽Jesús Imaz (pen)
35'
45'
🔁Rúben Vinagreout: Arkadiusz Reca
57'
🔁Jan Kuchtaout: Lukasz Zjawinski
57'
🔁Mateusz Szczepaniakout: Jakub Zewlakow
57'
🔁Michal Sevcikout: Rafal Adamski
🔁Norbert Wojtuszekout: Jeremy Agbonifo
65'
🔁Ferslev Anders Klyngeout: Sergio Lozano
65'
75'
⚽Paweł Wszołekassist: Rafał Augustyniak
•Jeremy Agbonifo
80'
🔁Kajetan·Szmytout: Aleksandar·Cirkovic
84'
🔁Nik Prelecout: Dimitris Rallis
84'
86'
Rafal Adamski
87'
🔁Paweł Wszołekout: Kacper Chodyna
🔁Eryk Kozlowskiout: Dawid Drachal
90+1'

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa

68%Possession32%
18Shots10
4On target3
4Corners4

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  • 85Eryk KozlowskiM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoM
  • 11Jesús ImazM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 32A. ĆirkovićF
  • 8D. DrachalM
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 72K. JóźwiakM
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 9Dimitris RallisF
Coach: A. Siemieniec
Legia Warszawa 3-4-2-1
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 24Z. ArsenićD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5Robert DezielD
  • 23M. ŠevčíkM
  • 53W. UrbańskiM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19Rúben VinagreM
  • 22P. WszołekM
  • 17M. SzczepaniakM
  • 7J. KuchtaF
Substitutes
  • 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
  • 20J. ŻewłakowF
  • 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
  • 4D. SzymańskiM
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 1I. BrkićG
  • 6Henrique ArreiolM
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Coach: M. Papszun

Form going into Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa

Jagiellonia

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026

Legia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Jagiellonia115061417-315
4Legia Warszawa126512311+1223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa

  • 1 March 2026Jagiellonia 2–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 24 September 2025Legia Warszawa 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 13 April 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 26 February 2025Legia Warszawa 3–1 JagielloniaCup
  • 6 October 2024Jagiellonia 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa

Jagiellonia

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Legia Warszawa

GoalsAssists

  • R. Adamski40
  • Ł. Zjawiński40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Legia Warszawa won 3–1 at Jagiellonia. The model had leaned towards a win for Jagiellonia at 39% and given a win for Legia Warszawa 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rafał Augustyniak (penalty) 15' for Legia Warszawa, Nik Prelec (own goal) 20' for Legia Warszawa, Jesús Imaz (penalty) 35' for Jagiellonia, Paweł Wszołek 75' for Legia Warszawa.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.