Jagiellonia
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 2–1 Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 39% Jagiellonia, 29% draw, 32% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.52, Legia Warszawa 1.25.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Jagiellonia wins, grey are draws, red are Legia Warszawa wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
Legia Warszawa
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
- W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa
- 1 March 2026Jagiellonia 2–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 24 September 2025Legia Warszawa 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2025Legia Warszawa 3–1 JagielloniaCup
- 6 October 2024Jagiellonia 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 6 July 2024Legia Warszawa 2–0 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assists
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.62 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.25 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.76 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.78 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Legia Warszawa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jagiellonia a 2.5% chance of the title and Legia Warszawa 36.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.25 for Legia Warszawa. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.23 for Legia Warszawa.