Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 56% Zaglebie Lubin, 21% draw, 23% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 2.18, Slask Wroclaw 1.34.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow9 August 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Slask Wroclaw | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zaglebie Lubin carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.51 for Slask Wroclaw. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Zaglebie Lubin W-L; Slask Wroclaw L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.34 for Slask Wroclaw. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.79 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slask Wroclaw rate 0.74 and 1.46.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slask Wroclaw, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.34 for Slask Wroclaw. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.46 for Slask Wroclaw.