16 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Cracovia Krakow, 25% draw, 21% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cracovia Krakow at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow97%Draw3%Raków Częstochowa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽P. Makuchassist: M. Emreli
53'
Didí Gaucho
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
56'
⚽A. Hasic
56'
57'
🔁D. G. Debohiout: V. Kochergin
57'
🔁M. Ameyawout: E. Otieno
66'
🔁T. Pienkoout: O. Kwiatkowski
66'
🔁P. Makuchout: L. Diaby-Fadiga
🔁K. Zahiroleslamout: M. Praszelik
70'
⚽D. Pilaassist: M. Klich
75'
76'
🔁K. Struskiout: A. Molnar
🔁M. Klichout: B. Selan
79'
🔁A. Hasicout: O. Kakabadze
84'
🔁D. Kameriout: K. Smiglewski
84'

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

42%Possession58%
18Shots14
8On target3
7Corners5
2.74xG0.85

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow2 from 2.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Raków Częstochowa1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 79D. PilaD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoreD
  • 39M. PerkovicD
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 6A. Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasicM
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 18K. ZahiroleslamF
Substitutes
  • 23H. RavasG
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 7M. PraszelikM
  • 92M. SkoczylasM
  • 19M. TabiszM
  • 29W. DejM
Coach: Bartosz Grzelak
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 21T. PienkoF
Substitutes
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 22O. Abraham
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 26E. OtienoM
  • 88A. Molnar
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

Cracovia Krakow

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
  • L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
  • D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 19 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 4–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 29 October 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Cracovia KrakowCup
  • 18 October 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 1 February 2025Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 29 July 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2–1. The model had made a win for Cracovia Krakow its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: P. Makuch 31' for Raków Częstochowa, A. Hasic 56' for Cracovia Krakow, D. Pila 75' for Cracovia Krakow. On expected goals it finished 2.74–0.85.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.