Cracovia Krakow
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 52% Cracovia Krakow, 25% draw, 23% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.70, Raków Częstochowa 1.03.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cracovia Krakow
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.61 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cracovia Krakow D-L-D; Raków Częstochowa L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.83 and 1.34.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.67/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.34 for Raków Częstochowa.