Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zaglebie Lubin, 28% draw, 33% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Z. AlomerovicG
- 5A. LawniczakD
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 13M. GrzybekM
- 26J. KolanM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 71K. NowogonskiM
- 44M. RegulaF
- 88M. MlinaricF
- 9M. KosidisF
- 1J. BuricG
- 25M. NalepaD
- 31I. OrlikowskiD
- 38S. KarasinskiD
- 94M. UrbanskiD
- 8D. DabrowskiM
- 7J. SypekM
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 37S. KerkM
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 15H. AliD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 4Leo BorgesD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 3K. AcostaM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 10F. CuicF
- 33A. PeskovicG
- 89A. FojutG
- 23B. MendyD
- 29L. WillenD
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 6J. BieganskiM
- 8F. UlvestadM
- 47N. LawaM
- 11K. GrosickiM
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa9 August 2026
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
What these results say
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin
- 4 July 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Pogon SzczecinFriendlies Clubs
- 15 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 1 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 December 2024Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Zaglebie LubinCup
- 28 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Pogon Szczecin
- Jordi Sánchez8 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.