Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 46% Zaglebie Lubin, 24% draw, 30% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.85, Pogon Szczecin 1.46.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin
- 4 July 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Pogon SzczecinFriendlies Clubs
- 15 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 1 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 December 2024Pogon Szczecin 4–3 Zaglebie LubinCup
- 28 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Zaglebie Lubin
No league goals recorded yet.
Pogon Szczecin
- P. Mukairu1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zaglebie Lubin carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.63 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Zaglebie Lubin W-L; Pogon Szczecin L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.46 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.79 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.80 and 1.24.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogon Szczecin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.46 for Pogon Szczecin. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.24 for Pogon Szczecin.