Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Wisla Plock 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Wisla Plock, 27% draw, 26% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Plock at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. LeszczynskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangreD
- 35M. KaminskiD
- 34A. SilvaD
- 21Z. RogeljM
- 17A. RadwanskiM
- 6K. PomorskiM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 11J. JimenezF
- 10S. HamulicF
- 23P. KunF
- 26J. BurekG
- 44P. MisiakD
- 41M. WieckowskiD
- 16F. HiszpanskiM
- 7O. KobackiM
- 91G. KuchkoM
- 24N. RogowskiD
- 20L. SekulskiF
- 9D. JuricF
- 1X. DziekonskiG
- 71W. DlugoszD
- 23S. RubezicD
- 2A. MosorD
- 6M. PieczekD
- 35K. JakubczykM
- 8M. RemacleM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 67N. Barczak
- 14M. StepinskiF
- 22M. FassbenderF
- 87R. MamlaG
- 24B. SmolarczykD
- 44K. SotiriouD
- 10NonoM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 9S. DavidovicM
- 21K. CiszekD
- 20K. MinuczycM
- 99D. BakF
Form going into Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
What these results say
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Korona Kielce had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce
- 8 December 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 19 July 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 4 March 2023Korona Kielce 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2022Wisla Plock 2–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 8 July 2022Korona Kielce 0–2 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2021Korona Kielce 4–3 Wisla PlockCup
Leading scorers: Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński6 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.