Wisla Plock
vs
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 53% Wisla Plock, 25% draw, 22% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.71, Korona Kielce 1.01.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wisla Plock
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
Korona Kielce
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce
- 8 December 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 19 July 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 4 March 2023Korona Kielce 1–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2022Wisla Plock 2–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 8 July 2022Korona Kielce 0–2 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2021Korona Kielce 4–3 Wisla PlockCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wisla Plock carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.58 for Korona Kielce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wisla Plock W-D-L; Korona Kielce L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Korona Kielce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Plock rate 0.84 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Korona Kielce rate 0.60 and 1.08.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Plock the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Wisla Plock against 1.01 for Korona Kielce. Wisla Plock's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.08 for Korona Kielce.