Novi Pazar
vs
Macva
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 49% Novi Pazar, 25% draw, 26% Macva — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Novi Pazar 1.70, Macva 1.19.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Novi Pazar
- L0-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda8 August 2026
- L1-4OFK Beograd1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani26 July 2026
- W1-0Radnicki 192318 July 2026
Macva
- W1-0IMT Novi Beograd9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vojvodina3 August 2026
- L1-3FK Partizan26 July 2026
- L0-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Macva | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs Macva
- 1 July 2026Macva 2–1 Novi PazarFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2021Novi Pazar 4–0 MacvaSuper Liga
- 23 August 2020Macva 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers
Novi Pazar
No league goals recorded yet.
Macva
- M. Vidakov2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Novi Pazar carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.04 for Macva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Novi Pazar W-D-L-L; Macva L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.19 for Macva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novi Pazar rate 0.46 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Macva rate 0.38 and 1.96.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novi Pazar the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Novi Pazar against 1.19 for Macva. Novi Pazar's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.96 for Macva.