1. FC Heidenheim
vs
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 47% 1. FC Heidenheim, 24% draw, 29% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.84, Dynamo Dresden 1.41.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
1. FC Heidenheim
- W4-3VfL Osnabrück8 August 2026
Dynamo Dresden
- L0-3away to 1. FC Nürnberg9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
1. FC Heidenheim
- M. Costly1 goals2 assists
Dynamo Dresden
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.94 for Dynamo Dresden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): 1. FC Heidenheim W; Dynamo Dresden L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.41 for Dynamo Dresden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Heidenheim rate 1.16 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Dresden rate 0.99 and 0.84.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.41 for Dynamo Dresden. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.84 for Dynamo Dresden.