29 August 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Full time5 – 3

Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 5-3 Dynamo Dresden.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% 1. FC Heidenheim, 22% draw, 16% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 62% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Thomas Keller
30'
⚽V. Vermeijassist: J. Sterner
Luca Kerber
46'
Mathias Honsak
52'
🔁L. Kerberout: O. Mhamdi
56'
🔁M. Honsakout: P. Hennrich
56'
⚽J. Schoppnerassist: M. Heule
67'
68'
🔁L. Boederout: J. Oehmichen
68'
🔁K. Inanogluout: J. Lemmer
69'
Thomas Keller
69'
Thomas Keller
🔁M. Kaufmannout: M. Breunig
71'
71'
🔁N. Hauptmannout: A. Muhamedbegovic
73'
⚽R. Wagnerassist: B. Bobzien
⚽F. Muller (OG)
77'
78'
Ben Bobzien
🔁M. Buschout: J. Niehues
80'
🔁B. Zivzivadzeout: Y. Wagner
80'
84'
🔁V. Vermeijout: T. Raschl
84'
🔁B. Bobzienout: N. Froling
⚽O. Mhamdi
87'
⚽J. Niehuesassist: P. Hennrich
89'
⚽M. Breunig
90'
90'
⚽J. Sternerassist: T. Raschl

Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden

37%Possession63%
27Shots17
10On target8
6Corners9
3.24xG1.52

Goals against chances

1. FC Heidenheim5 from 3.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dynamo Dresden3 from 1.52 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DahneG
  • 2M. BuschD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FohrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 24M. CostlyM
  • 3J. SchoppnerM
  • 20L. KerberM
  • 17M. HonsakM
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 29M. KaufmannF
Substitutes
  • 1F. FellerG
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 41M. ZrilicM
  • 38Y. WagnerF
  • 14M. BreunigF
  • 8P. HennrichM
Coach: Frank Schmidt
Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 39T. KellerD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 29L. BoederM
  • 11K. InanogluM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 40E. BethkeG
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovicD
  • 14B. EzehD
  • 21T. RaschlM
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 16N. FrolingF
  • 25J. OehmichenM
  • 10J. LemmerM
Coach: Thomas Stamm

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden

1. FC Heidenheim

  • L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026

Dynamo Dresden

  • W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31. FC Heidenheim64111412+213
17Dynamo Dresden6114814-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden

  • 29 June 2022Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 February 2022Dynamo Dresden 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 12 September 2021FC Heidenheim 2–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 2 February 2020FC Heidenheim 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 18 August 2019Dynamo Dresden 2–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 2 February 2019FC Heidenheim 1–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden

1. FC Heidenheim

  • J. Schöppner3 goals
  • B. Zivzivadze3 goals

Dynamo Dresden

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.