Motor Lublin
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 45% Motor Lublin, 23% draw, 32% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.88, Piast Gliwice 1.55.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motor Lublin
- L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Piast Gliwice
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Piast Gliwice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice
- 20 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 16 August 2025Motor Lublin 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 9 May 2025Motor Lublin 1–4 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2024Piast Gliwice 2–3 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.61 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Motor Lublin D-L-L; Piast Gliwice L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.55 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.82 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.74 and 1.21.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Piast Gliwice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.55 for Piast Gliwice. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.21 for Piast Gliwice.