Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Partizan Super Liga prediction

Belgrade

Our model says: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 FK Partizan

The model makes it 41% IMT Novi Beograd, 29% draw, 30% FK Partizan — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.43, FK Partizan 1.15.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. IMT Novi Beograd's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and FK Partizan's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.

Key facts

  • IMT Novi Beograd are 4th on 23 points from 15 games; FK Partizan are 10th on 17 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
  • IMT Novi Beograd are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Zemun.
  • FK Partizan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Macva.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended FK Partizan 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd.

More Serbian SuperLiga predictions

All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Partizan

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

IMT Novi Beograd win Draw FK Partizan win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read IMT Novi Beograd first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

IMT Novi Beograd at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Partizan

IMT Novi Beograd

Super Liga

  • D1-1away to Zemun7 November 2026
  • D0-0Cukaricki1 November 2026
  • L0-1Železničar Pančevo23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Novi Pazar18 October 2026
  • W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026

FK Partizan

Super Liga

  • L1-2Macva8 November 2026
  • W3-0Zemun1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Radnicki NIS28 October 2026
  • L0-2Cukaricki24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Železničar Pančevo18 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
  • FK Partizan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IMT Novi Beograd156541610+623
10FK Partizan155282526-117

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

IMT Novi Beograd

Chance to finish in the top six · 68% today

Win 80%
Draw 65%
Defeat 54%

FK Partizan

Chance to finish in the top six · 22% today

Win 32%
Draw 20%
Defeat 14%

From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Partizan

  • 2 August 2026FK Partizan 1–2 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 20 December 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 18 August 2025FK Partizan 5–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 16 December 2024FK Partizan 1–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 11 August 2024IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 17 February 2024FK Partizan 5–2 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga

Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and FK Partizan

IMT Novi Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • C. Keita32

FK Partizan

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kojzek32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

IMT Novi Beograd FK Partizan
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71
1.26 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.96
1.43 Model expected goals (this match) 1.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 1.15 for FK Partizan. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.96 for FK Partizan.

How the model reaches 41% for IMT Novi Beograd to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for IMT Novi Beograd to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, IMT Novi Beograd's ratings take away 2 points and FK Partizan's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage42%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−1
  4. IMT Novi Beograd's ratings39%−2
  5. FK Partizan's ratings41%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

IMT Novi BeogradFK Partizan
15Matches15
6W 5D 4LRecord5W 2D 8L
16 1.1 per gameGoals scored25 1.7 per game
10 0.7 per gameGoals conceded26 1.7 per game
6 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
5 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 2Penalties scored–
37 2.5 per gameYellow cards36 2.4 per game
1Red cards4
4-4-2 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

IMT Novi Beograd at home · FK Partizan away

7Played7
3W 2D 2LRecord2W 2D 3L
7–2Goals for – against14–15
5 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super Liga matches this season: IMT Novi Beograd 15, FK Partizan 15.

IMT Novi Beograd scored 014426
FK Partizan conceded 347642

IMT Novi Beograd score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FK Partizan have let in 2 there.

FK Partizan scored 252358
IMT Novi Beograd conceded 311202

FK Partizan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); IMT Novi Beograd have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

IMT Novi Beograd

  • vs Macva28 Nov · Super Ligawin 50%
  • at Radnicki NIS6 Dec · Super Ligawin 42%
  • vs Radnicki 19236 Feb · Super Ligawin 40%
  • at Mladost Lucani13 Feb · Super Ligawin 41%
  • vs OFK Beograd20 Feb · Super Ligawin 47%

FK Partizan

  • vs Radnicki NIS28 Nov · Super Ligawin 60%
  • at Radnicki 19236 Dec · Super Ligawin 33%
  • vs Mladost Lucani6 Feb · Super Ligawin 58%
  • at OFK Beograd13 Feb · Super Ligawin 40%
  • vs FK Crvena Zvezda20 Feb · Super Ligawin 18%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.