FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 Radnik Surdulica
The model makes it 71% FK Crvena Zvezda, 18% draw, 11% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.61, Radnik Surdulica 0.73.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: FK Crvena Zvezda are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FK Crvena Zvezda's rating is built from 52 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Radnik Surdulica's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- FK Crvena Zvezda are top on 43 points from 15 games; Radnik Surdulica are 6th on 23 points from 15 games — Super Liga.
- FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Vojvodina.
- Radnik Surdulica have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to OFK Beograd.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Crvena Zvezda 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 September 2026, ended Radnik Surdulica 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnik Surdulica
Has the model earned this number?
FK Crvena Zvezda at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnik Surdulica
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga
- W1-0away to Vojvodina8 November 2026
- W4-2away to Macva31 October 2026
- W1-0away to OFK Beograd25 October 2026
- W5-1Mladost Lucani18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga
- W2-1OFK Beograd8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Mladost Lucani2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Radnicki 192323 October 2026
- W3-0Radnicki NIS16 October 2026
- L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
What these results say
- FK Crvena Zvezda won every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 6 | +32 | 43 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radnik Surdulica
Chance to finish in the top six · 62% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnik Surdulica
- 10 September 2026Radnik Surdulica 0–0 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 17 May 2026Radnik Surdulica 0–0 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 5 April 2026Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 2 November 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 7 April 2024Radnik Surdulica 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 4 November 2023FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and Radnik Surdulica
FK Crvena Zvezda
GoalsAssists
- B. Dieng50
- V. Kostov43
- A. Katai34
Radnik Surdulica
GoalsAssists
- V. Bogdanović61
- M. Novaković33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Crvena Zvezda a 99.4% chance of the title and Radnik Surdulica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.61 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 0.73 for Radnik Surdulica. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.69 for Radnik Surdulica.
How the model reaches 71% for FK Crvena Zvezda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FK Crvena Zvezda to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings add 15 points and Radnik Surdulica's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 71%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- FK Crvena Zvezda's ratings57%+15
- Radnik Surdulica's ratings71%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FK Crvena Zvezda at home · Radnik Surdulica away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: FK Crvena Zvezda 15, Radnik Surdulica 15.
FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Radnik Surdulica have let in 5 there.
Radnik Surdulica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); FK Crvena Zvezda have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FK Crvena Zvezda
- at Gent26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
- at Novi Pazar28 Nov · Super Ligawin 62%
- vs Železničar Pančevo6 Dec · Super Ligawin 58%
- at FC Iberia 199910 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 51%
- vs Trabzonspor17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
Radnik Surdulica
- vs Vojvodina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Macva6 Dec · Super Ligawin 40%
- at Novi Pazar6 Feb · Super Ligawin 33%
- vs Železničar Pančevo13 Feb · Super Ligawin 30%
- at Cukaricki20 Feb · Super Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.