Zaglebie Lubin
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 GKS Katowice.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Zaglebie Lubin, 28% draw, 26% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.81, GKS Katowice 1.07.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
Line-ups
- 33Z. AlomerovićG
- 5A. ŁawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 16J. ĆorlukaM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 8D. DąbrowskiM
- 6D. ČolinaM
- 44M. RegułaF
- 18F. SzymczakF
- 71K. NowogońskiF
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 30D. HładunG
- 37S. KerkM
- 1J. BurićG
- 26J. KolanM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 19S. ŁyczkoM
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 88M. MlinarićF
- 87G. KobylakG
- 30A. CzerwińskiD
- 4A. JędrychD
- 55Pau RestaD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 68B. WolskiM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 23M. WasielewskiM
- 15E. MarkovićF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 10M. WędrychowskiM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 19K. ŁukasiakM
- 21Jakub KokosinskiF
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 26D. RasakM
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
Zaglebie Lubin
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
GKS Katowice
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
- 12 September 2026Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 30 January 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 28 July 2025GKS Katowice 2–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 9 March 2025GKS Katowice 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 13 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.81 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.07 for GKS Katowice; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kamil Nowogonski 42' (Zaglebie Lubin), Michalis Kosidis 78' (Zaglebie Lubin), Arkadiusz Jedrych 90' (GKS Katowice).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.07 for GKS Katowice. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.5 for GKS Katowice.