Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 GKS Katowice.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Zaglebie Lubin, 28% draw, 26% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
Line-ups
- 33Z. AlomerovićG
- 5A. ŁawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 16J. ĆorlukaM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 8D. DąbrowskiM
- 6D. ČolinaM
- 44M. RegułaF
- 18F. SzymczakF
- 71K. NowogońskiF
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 30D. HładunG
- 37S. KerkM
- 1J. BurićG
- 26J. KolanM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 19S. ŁyczkoM
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 88M. MlinarićF
- 87G. KobylakG
- 30A. CzerwińskiD
- 4A. JędrychD
- 55Pau RestaD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 68B. WolskiM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 23M. WasielewskiM
- 15E. MarkovićF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 10M. WędrychowskiM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 19K. ŁukasiakM
- 21Jakub KokosinskiF
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 26D. RasakM
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
Zaglebie Lubin
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa9 August 2026
GKS Katowice
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Motor Lublin16 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Tel Aviv12 August 2026
What these results say
- Zaglebie Lubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice
- 30 January 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 28 July 2025GKS Katowice 2–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 9 March 2025GKS Katowice 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 13 July 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zaglebie Lubin beat GKS Katowice 2–1. The model had made a win for Zaglebie Lubin its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kamil Nowogonski 42' for Zaglebie Lubin, Michalis Kosidis 78' for Zaglebie Lubin, Arkadiusz Jedrych (penalty) 90+4' for GKS Katowice.
How the call on Zaglebie Lubin v GKS Katowice has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Zaglebie Lubin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Zaglebie Lubin win46%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- GKS Katowice win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.