12 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Gornik Zabrze, 30% draw, 35% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gornik Zabrze at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gornik Zabrze96%Draw4%Lech Poznan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Patrick Walemark
Jarosław Kubicki
30'
36'
⚽Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
37'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Michal Sáček
39'
Paulo Bernardo
55'
Janis Antiste
60'
🔁Janis Antisteout: Erik Prekop
60'
🔁Paulo Bernardoout: Sondre Liseth
60'
🔁Peter Federico González Carmonaout: Yvan Ikia Dimi
60'
64'
🔁Allahyar Sayyadmaneshout: Leo Bengtsson
64'
🔁Radosław Murawskiout: Filip Jagiełło
72'
🔁Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoout: Luis Palma
72'
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
⚽Erik Prekopassist: Kacper Urbanski
76'
⚽Erik Prekopassist: Erik Janža
80'
Erik Prekop
80'
🔁Erik Janžaout: Ondrej Zmrzly
83'
🔁Kacper Urbanskiout: Lukáš Sadílek
88'

Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

51%Possession49%
12Shots10
4On target1
5Corners4

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 61M. SáčekD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 8Paulo BernardoM
  • 19PeterF
  • 9J. AntisteF
  • 33M. KhlanF
Substitutes
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 28B. DonioM
  • 4P. BochniewiczD
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 23S. LisethF
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 18L. SadílekM
Coach: M. Gašparík
Lech Poznan 4-4-2
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MońkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 21Pablo RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 4João MoutinhoD
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Coach: N. Frederiksen

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

Gornik Zabrze

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
  • L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
  • L2-3Monaco20 August 2026

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
  • W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gornik Zabrze conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze had three goals or more.
  • Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Gornik Zabrze128312111+1027
1Lech Poznan119112910+1928

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

  • 16 July 2026Lech Poznan 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeSuper Cup
  • 4 March 2026Lech Poznan 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeCup
  • 7 February 2026Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 2 August 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 6 December 2024Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

  • K. Urbański51
  • Peter40

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • Pablo Rodríguez66
  • P. Wålemark53
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gornik Zabrze beat Lech Poznan 2–1. The goals: Allahyar Sayyadmanesh 36' for Lech Poznan, Erik Prekop 76' for Gornik Zabrze, Erik Prekop 80' for Gornik Zabrze.

How the call on Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Gornik Zabrze's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Gornik Zabrze win35%▼ −5
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Lech Poznan win35%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.