Regular Season - 8 · 12 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Gornik Zabrze, 29% draw, 34% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.50, Lech Poznan 1.39.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

59%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gornik Zabrze at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gornik Zabrze96%Draw4%Lech Poznan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Patrick Walemark
Jarosław Kubicki
30'
36'
⚽Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
37'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Michal Sáček
39'
Paulo Bernardo
55'
Janis Antiste
60'
🔁Janis Antisteout: Erik Prekop
60'
🔁Paulo Bernardoout: Sondre Liseth
60'
🔁Peter Federico González Carmonaout: Yvan Ikia Dimi
60'
64'
🔁Allahyar Sayyadmaneshout: Leo Bengtsson
64'
🔁Radosław Murawskiout: Filip Jagiełło
72'
🔁Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoout: Luis Palma
72'
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
⚽Erik Prekopassist: Kacper Urbanski
76'
⚽Erik Prekopassist: Erik Janža
80'
Erik Prekop
80'
🔁Erik Janžaout: Ondrej Zmrzly
83'
🔁Kacper Urbanskiout: Lukáš Sadílek
88'

Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

51%Possession49%
12Shots10
4On target1
5Corners4

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 61M. SáčekD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 8Paulo BernardoM
  • 19PeterF
  • 9J. AntisteF
  • 33M. KhlanF
Substitutes
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 28B. DonioM
  • 4P. BochniewiczD
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 23S. LisethF
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 18L. SadílekM
Coach: M. Gašparík
Lech Poznan 4-4-2
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MońkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 21Pablo RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 4João MoutinhoD
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Coach: N. Frederiksen

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

Gornik Zabrze

  • W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
  • L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
  • W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026

Lech Poznan

  • W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Gornik Zabrze7601148+618
3Lech Poznan7511126+616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan

  • 12 September 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 16 July 2026Lech Poznan 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeSuper Cup
  • 4 March 2026Lech Poznan 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeCup
  • 7 February 2026Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 2 August 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 6 December 2024Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan

Gornik Zabrze

  • K. Urbański3 goals1 assists

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.50 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.39 for Lech Poznan; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Allahyar Sayyadmanesh 36' (Lech Poznan), Erik Prekop 76' (Gornik Zabrze), Erik Prekop 80' (Gornik Zabrze).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 1.39 for Lech Poznan. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.11 for Lech Poznan.