Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Wisla Krakow 2-0 Jagiellonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Wisla Krakow, 28% draw, 29% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Krakow at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Line-ups
- 1M. ŁubikG
- 34R. GigerD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 29D. GrujčićD
- 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
- 41K. DudaM
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 27É. YouanM
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 17M. BožićM
- 9Ángel RodadoF
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
- 8Marc CarbóM
- 10Frederico DuarteM
- 50M. KutwaD
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 23Víctor MeseguerM
- 4R. MikulecD
- 93Bartosz NeugebauerG
- 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 15N. WojtuszekD
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 20B. WdowikD
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 10J. AgbonifoM
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 14H. FinndellM
- 72K. JóźwiakM
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
- 1M. PerchelG
- 2C. PolakD
- 3Dušan StojinovićD
- 17Y. SyllaF
- 32A. ĆirkovićF
Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Wisla Krakow
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze16 August 2026
Jagiellonia
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia
- 11 September 2026Wisla Krakow 2–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 April 2025Jagiellonia 1–0 Wisla KrakowSuper Cup
- 7 May 2022Wisla Krakow 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 20 November 2021Jagiellonia 3–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 7 February 2021Wisla Krakow 2–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 24 August 2020Jagiellonia 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Jagiellonia
Wisla Krakow
- Jordi Sánchez6 goals1 assists
- Ángel Rodado3 goals1 assists
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.