Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Raków Częstochowa, 28% draw, 33% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin
Line-ups
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovițanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 21T. PieńkoM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 9P. MakuchF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 5M. BulatF
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 99Adam BasseF
- 77D. DebohiD
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 71T. KarićG
- 10V. KocherginM
- 44B. MirčetićM
- 88A. MolnarM
- 22A. OjoM
- 33G. TratnikG
- 17K. LukoszekD
- 18B. BereszyńskiD
- 39M. BartošD
- 24F. LubereckiD
- 27Y. BourhaneM
- 30M. NdiayeM
- 7Ivo RodriguesM
- 6M. ŁęgowskiM
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 10K. CzubakF
- 8C. SimonM
- 29T. SantosD
- 77Mateusz PosmykF
- 71M. PopaG
- 4T. PlavotićD
- 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
- 9Rony LopesF
- 23F. HaxhaM
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
Motor Lublin
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
- W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin
- 11 September 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 12 April 2026Motor Lublin 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 7 December 2024Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 21 July 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 1 March 2023Motor Lublin 0–3 Raków CzęstochowaCup
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch4 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.