11 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Motor Lublin.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Raków Częstochowa, 28% draw, 33% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa96%Draw4%Motor Lublin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Karol Struski
31'
34'
⚽Kamil Lukoszekassist: Ivo Rodrigues
⚽Patryk Makuchassist: Marko Bulat
42'
🔁Karol Struskiout: Vladyslav Kochergin
61'
62'
🔁Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicaoout: Makan Aiko
🔁Marko Bulatout: Adam Basse
76'
⚽Patryk Makuchassist: Vladyslav Kochergin
77'
80'
🔁Mateusz Legowskiout: Christopher Simon
80'
🔁Mbaye Jacques Ndiayeout: Rony Lopes
Vladyslav Kochergin
81'
85'
Mariusz Misiura
🔁Jean Carlosout: Marko Perović
87'
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Ojo abraham
87'
87'
🔁Kamil Lukoszekout: Paskal Konrad Meyer
87'
🔁Filip Lubereckiout: Mateusz Posmyk

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin

52%Possession48%
15Shots16
7On target5
8Corners4

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovițanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 21T. PieńkoM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 5M. BulatF
Substitutes
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 99Adam BasseF
  • 77D. DebohiD
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 44B. MirčetićM
  • 88A. MolnarM
  • 22A. OjoM
Coach: T. Kaczmarek
Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 17K. LukoszekD
  • 18B. BereszyńskiD
  • 39M. BartošD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 7Ivo RodriguesM
  • 6M. ŁęgowskiM
  • 11Fábio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 8C. SimonM
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 77Mateusz PosmykF
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 4T. PlavotićD
  • 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
  • 9Rony LopesF
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 90Dominik GregorskiF
Coach: M. Misiura

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
  • L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
  • L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026

Motor Lublin

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
  • L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
  • W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Raków Częstochowa1220101628-126
12Motor Lublin123451721-413

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin

  • 12 April 2026Motor Lublin 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 5 October 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 7 December 2024Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 21 July 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 1 March 2023Motor Lublin 0–3 Raków CzęstochowaCup

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch61

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Raków Częstochowa beat Motor Lublin 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Raków Częstochowa at 39%. The goals: Kamil Lukoszek 34' for Motor Lublin, Patryk Makuch 42' for Raków Częstochowa, Patryk Makuch 77' for Raków Częstochowa.

How the call on Raków Częstochowa v Motor Lublin has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is Raków Częstochowa's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Raków Częstochowa win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Motor Lublin win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.