Regular Season - 9 · 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Cukaricki vs Novi Pazar Super Liga prediction & result

Stadion na Banovom brdu, Belgrade
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cukaricki 1-1 Novi Pazar.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Cukaricki, 30% draw, 37% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Cukaricki 1.24, Novi Pazar 1.36.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Cukaricki vs Novi Pazar

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 10%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Novi Pazar at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Remy Rees-Dottinassist: Nikola·Stankovic
17'
Zlatan Šehović
37'
38'
⚽Nikola·Stankovic (OG)
57'
Skima Togbe
58'
Strahinja Pandurović
63'
🔁Skima Togbeout: Adem Ljajić
🔁Remy Rees-Dottinout: Aboubacar Cisse
65'
🔁Đorđe Jovanovićout: Milan Pavkov
74'
🔁karel mustmaaout: Uroš Nikolić
74'
76'
🔁Fejsal Mulicout: Haris Kadric
76'
🔁Dominic Sadiout: Johnson Agwom Dauda
Marko Docić
77'
🔁L Đorđevićout: Andrej Ilich
80'
🔁Nikola·Stankovicout: Nemanja Miletić
80'
Milan djokovic
82'
86'
🔁Kaheim Dixonout: Nikola Stanković
86'
🔁Ivan Davidovicout: stefan malentijevic

Match stats — Cukaricki vs Novi Pazar

56%Possession44%
10Shots7
4On target3
2Corners2

Line-ups

Cukaricki 4-2-3-1
  • 81V. ČarapićG
  • 24N. StankovićD
  • 23I. MaigaD
  • 26M. ĐokovićD
  • 3Z. ŠehovićD
  • 14S. SissokoM
  • 5M. DocićM
  • 51Remy Rees-DottinM
  • 18karel mustmaaM
  • 9Luka ĐorđevićM
  • 99Đ. JovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 20A. CisseM
  • 73N. MiletićD
  • 27A. NanqueF
  • 1Đ. NikolićG
  • 72U. NikolićM
  • 50M. PavkovF
  • 87Mateja ProkopijevićM
  • 16S. AndjelicD
  • 6V. ZuricD
Coach: M. S. Jakšić
Novi Pazar 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bogdan MatijaševićG
  • 2A. MiljkovićD
  • 4Allan De LeónD
  • 23J. MarinkovićD
  • 50T. DadićD
  • 6P. GadioM
  • 8Skima TogbeM
  • 10D. SadiM
  • 24I. DavidovićM
  • 20K. DixonM
  • 99F. MulićF
Substitutes
  • 18H. KadrićF
  • 7JonnyF
  • 5S. MelentijevićD
  • 21M. PetrovićM
  • 12M. PrekovićG
  • 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
  • 14N. StankovicM
  • 26D. Johnson AgwomF
  • 70D. JankovićM
Coach: Strahinja Pandurovic

Form going into Cukaricki vs Novi Pazar

Cukaricki

  • L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
  • L0-5Vojvodina29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to FK Crvena Zvezda23 August 2026
  • W2-0OFK Beograd15 August 2026

Novi Pazar

  • W2-0Železničar Pančevo4 September 2026
  • D1-1Macva29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Radnik Surdulica23 August 2026
  • W2-0Vojvodina17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cukaricki93241116-511
7Novi Pazar933389-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cukaricki vs Novi Pazar

  • 12 September 2026Cukaricki 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 26 April 2026Novi Pazar 2–2 CukarickiSuper Liga
  • 15 March 2026Novi Pazar 1–1 CukarickiSuper Liga
  • 19 October 2025Cukaricki 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 17 February 2025Cukaricki 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 15 September 2024Novi Pazar 2–2 CukarickiSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Cukaricki and Novi Pazar

Cukaricki

  • U. Miladinović4 goals2 assists

Novi Pazar

  • K. Dixon2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Cukaricki and 1.36 for Novi Pazar; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Remy Rees-Dottin 17' (Cukaricki), Nikola·Stankovic 38' (Novi Pazar).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Novi Pazar the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cukaricki against 1.36 for Novi Pazar. Cukaricki's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.81 for Novi Pazar.