Slask Wroclaw
vs
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Slask Wroclaw, 29% draw, 31% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.55, Korona Kielce 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slask Wroclaw at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
Line-ups
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 21A. Timossi AnderssonD
- 33E. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 8Marc LlinaresD
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 17K. LinettyM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 10M. DembéléF
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 3I. ChristodoulouD
- 31H. SliczniakG
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 15J. YriarteM
- 2D. SzalaD
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 88A. CiuckaM
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 9Ieltsin CamõesF
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 8M. RemacleM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 32O. LingrF
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 19M. AmeyawF
- 21K. CiszekD
- 9S. DavidoviÄM
- 22M. FaßbenderF
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 87R. MamlaG
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 30C. MenaM
- 10NonoM
- 24B. SmolarczykD
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin15 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Korona Kielce | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
- 12 September 2026Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 22 February 2025Korona Kielce 2–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 18 August 2024Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 9 December 2023Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 24 July 2023Korona Kielce 1–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 11 February 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Korona Kielce
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.55 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.25 for Korona Kielce; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mariusz Stępiński 35' (Korona Kielce), Malaly Dembele 79' (Slask Wroclaw), Simon Gustafsson 90' (Korona Kielce).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slask Wroclaw the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.25 for Korona Kielce. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.24 for Korona Kielce.