12 September 2026, 12:45 UTC

Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Tarczynski Arena
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Korona Kielce.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Slask Wroclaw, 29% draw, 30% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slask Wroclaw at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slask Wroclaw5%Draw92%Korona Kielce3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
⚽Mariusz Stępiński
🔁Grzegorz Tomasiewiczout: Dorian markowski
45'
🔁luka marjanacout: Leltsin Jeronimo Semedo Camoes
45'
57'
•Michael Ameyaw
64'
🔁Martin Remacleout: Camilo Mena
64'
🔁Michael Ameyawout: Morgan Faßbender
🔁Eniss Shabaniout: Adam Ciućka
69'
🔁Marc Llinaresout: Jan Jurčec
69'
77'
🔁Ondrej Lingrout: Simon Gustafsson
77'
🔁Mariusz Stępińskiout: Daniel Bak
⚽Malaly Dembeleassist: Adam Ciućka
79'
🔁Malaly Dembeleout: Przemyslaw Banaszak
80'
Karol Linetty
85'
90+3'
⚽Simon Gustafssonassist: kamil jakubczyk

Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce

57%Possession43%
11Shots17
5On target7
6Corners3

Line-ups

Slask Wroclaw 5-3-2
  • 1K. NiemczyckiG
  • 21A. Timossi AnderssonD
  • 33E. MatsenkoD
  • 5L. BaD
  • 44M. MalecD
  • 8Marc LlinaresD
  • 77E. ShabaniM
  • 17K. LinettyM
  • 20G. TomasiewiczM
  • 10M. DembéléF
  • 11L. MarjanacF
Substitutes
  • 3I. ChristodoulouD
  • 31H. SliczniakG
  • 25M. SzromnikG
  • 15J. YriarteM
  • 2D. SzalaD
  • 19P. BanaszakF
  • 88A. CiuckaM
  • 4M. DijakovicD
  • 9Ieltsin CamõesF
Coach: A. Šimundža
Korona Kielce 4-3-3
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 71W. DługoszD
  • 23S. RubežićD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 32O. LingrF
  • 14M. StępińskiF
  • 19M. AmeyawF
Substitutes
  • 21K. CiszekD
  • 9S. DavidovićM
  • 22M. FaßbenderF
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 30C. MenaM
  • 10NonoM
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
Coach: J. Zielinski

Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce

Slask Wroclaw

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
  • D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin15 August 2026
  • D0-0Cracovia Krakow9 August 2026

Korona Kielce

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
  • D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
  • D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Slask Wroclaw scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Slask Wroclaw conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Slask Wroclaw122371622-69
9Korona Kielce125341418-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce

  • 22 February 2025Korona Kielce 2–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
  • 18 August 2024Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 9 December 2023Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 24 July 2023Korona Kielce 1–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
  • 11 February 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Korona Kielce

Slask Wroclaw

GoalsAssists

  • P. Samiec-Talar47
  • P. Banaszak40

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Korona Kielce won 2–1 at Slask Wroclaw. The model had leaned towards a win for Slask Wroclaw at 41% and given a win for Korona Kielce 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mariusz Stępiński 35' for Korona Kielce, Malaly Dembele 79' for Slask Wroclaw, Simon Gustafsson 90+3' for Korona Kielce.

How the call on Slask Wroclaw v Korona Kielce has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Slask Wroclaw win41%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Korona Kielce win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.