WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% WSG Wattens, 24% draw, 53% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Salko HamzićG
- 5Drew MurrayD
- 23Marco BorasD
- 14David KubattaD
- 32Raphael GschösserD
- 43Nemanja ČelićM
- 18Husein BalićM
- 11Murat SatinM
- 17Michael OlakigbeM
- 8Nikolai FrederiksenF
- 16Lukas HinterseerF
- 36Thomas GoigingerF
- 9Ademola Ola-AdebomiF
- 3David GugganigD
- 15Mazou BambaraM
- 22David FalknerM
- 13Alexander EckmayrG
- 27David JauneggD
- 31Michael NeunerM
- 38Simon WieserM
- 53Daniil KhudyakovG
- 28Jurgen HeilD
- 5Albert VallciD
- 30Paul KollerD
- 18Emran SogloD
- 80Ryan FossoM
- 4Jon Gorenc StankovićM
- 26Belmin BeganovićM
- 19Simon SeidlM
- 43Jacob HödlM
- 17Szymon WłodarczykF
- 20Seedy JattaF
- 27Luís BalboD
- 15Gizo MamageishviliM
- 11Axel KayomboF
- 2Jeyland MitchellD
- 22Ammar HelacG
- 21Petar PetrovićD
- 23Arjan MalićD
- 40Julian HalwachsM
Form going into WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
- W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WSG Wattens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz
- 1 August 2026WSG Wattens 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 February 2026WSG Wattens 1–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 3 December 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 7 December 2024WSG Wattens 0–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Sturm Graz 4–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 25 February 2024WSG Wattens 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
- M. Olakigbe2 goals1 assists
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.