31 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result

Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% Lask Linz, 14% draw, 10% Grazer AK — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lask Linz at 76% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lask Linz99%Draw1%Grazer AK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Adeniranassist: K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
20'
28'
Donovan Pines
⚽S. Adeniran (pen)
29'
🔁R. Ljubicicout: M. Bogarde
67'
🔁S. Adeniranout: M. Usor
67'
🔁K. Danekout: A. Schopf
67'
71'
🔁L. Hermeshout: Anderson
71'
🔁D. Madernerout: A. Smits
72'
Leon Klassen
⚽C. Langassist: M. Bogarde
79'
80'
🔁C. Lichtenbergerout: M. Grosse
🔁C. Langout: N. Kane
81'
🔁G. Belloout: Y. Dibango
87'
87'
🔁Y. Oberleitnerout: P. Markovic

Match stats — Lask Linz vs Grazer AK

59%Possession41%
23Shots3
9On target1
6Corners2
2.46xG0.95

Goals against chances

Lask Linz3 from 2.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Grazer AK0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lask Linz 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 43J. TornichD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 10R. LjubicicM
  • 20K. P. Molgaard JorgensenM
  • 9K. DanekM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 2G. BelloM
  • 7S. AdeniranF
  • 27C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 33T. SchutzenauerG
  • 29F. FleckerF
  • 6M. BogardeD
  • 25Y. DibangoD
  • 8M. UsorF
  • 18A. SchopfM
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 45N. KaneM
  • 21M. Verhaeghe
Coach: Dietmar Kuhbauer
Grazer AK 3-4-1-2
  • 23C. StankovicG
  • 82B. OwusuD
  • 2D. PinesD
  • 27Y. OberleitnerD
  • 48M. GraggerM
  • 6L. HermeshM
  • 34P. MichorlM
  • 32L. KlassenM
  • 10C. LichtenbergerF
  • 9D. MadernerF
  • 25A. HofleitnerF
Substitutes
  • 26C. NichtG
  • 1J. MeierhoferG
  • 28AndersonM
  • 70N. F. Brown UgoM
  • 16F. BaumgartnerF
  • 11M. GrosseF
  • 7A. SmitsF
  • 72P. MarkovicD
  • 30C. HasenhuttlD
Coach: Ferdinand Feldhofer

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lask Linz6501164+1215
7Grazer AK6213414-107

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Grazer AK

  • 13 December 2025Grazer AK 1–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 25 October 2025Lask Linz 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 17 May 2025Grazer AK 1–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 5 April 2025Lask Linz 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 16 February 2025Grazer AK 0–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 21 September 2024Lask Linz 4–2 Grazer AKBundesliga

Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Grazer AK

Lask Linz

  • S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
  • C. Lang4 goals
  • M. Usor2 goals3 assists

Grazer AK

  • A. Hofleitner2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.