Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Lask Linz, 14% draw, 10% Grazer AK — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 76% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lask Linz vs Grazer AK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 43J. TornichD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 10R. LjubicicM
- 20K. P. Molgaard JorgensenM
- 9K. DanekM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 2G. BelloM
- 7S. AdeniranF
- 27C. LangF
- 33T. SchutzenauerG
- 29F. FleckerF
- 6M. BogardeD
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 8M. UsorF
- 18A. SchopfM
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 45N. KaneM
- 21M. Verhaeghe
- 23C. StankovicG
- 82B. OwusuD
- 2D. PinesD
- 27Y. OberleitnerD
- 48M. GraggerM
- 6L. HermeshM
- 34P. MichorlM
- 32L. KlassenM
- 10C. LichtenbergerF
- 9D. MadernerF
- 25A. HofleitnerF
- 26C. NichtG
- 1J. MeierhoferG
- 28AndersonM
- 70N. F. Brown UgoM
- 16F. BaumgartnerF
- 11M. GrosseF
- 7A. SmitsF
- 72P. MarkovicD
- 30C. HasenhuttlD
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 19 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Grazer AK
- 13 December 2025Grazer AK 1–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 25 October 2025Lask Linz 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 17 May 2025Grazer AK 1–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 5 April 2025Lask Linz 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 16 February 2025Grazer AK 0–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 21 September 2024Lask Linz 4–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Grazer AK
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang70
- S. Adeniran61
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lask Linz beat Grazer AK 3–0. The model had made a win for Lask Linz its most likely outcome, at 76%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Adeniran 20' for Lask Linz, S. Adeniran (penalty) 29' for Lask Linz, C. Lang 79' for Lask Linz. On expected goals it finished 2.46–0.95.