2 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Austria Lustenau vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau

Full time1 – 1

Final score: Austria Lustenau 1-1 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Austria Lustenau, 24% draw, 23% Ried — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 15 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria Lustenau at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Lustenau5%Draw92%Ried3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Weixelbraunassist: Danilo Soares

26'

34'

⚽J. Nasraweassist: A. Bajic

Danilo Soares

45+2'

56'

•Jaedin Rhodes

🔁P. Benjaminout: A. Verinac

61'

68'

🔁O. Sorgout: F. Rossdorfer

68'

🔁J. Nasraweout: T. Lund-Jensen

74'

🔁E. E. Aisowierenout: P. Sissoko

🔁L. Afrifaout: L. Jastremski

75'

🔁M. Maakout: E. Chukwu

75'

77'

Fabian Rossdorfer

Seydou Diarra

79'

83'

Tobias Lund Jensen

85'

🔁Y. Maartout: M. Rasner

86'

🔁S. Schwabout: J. Mayer

🔁D. Weixelbraunout: A. Gashi

87'

🔁S. Delayeout: P. Grabher

87'

Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Ried

41%Possession59%

13Shots24

4On target7

4Corners9

0.82xG2.4

Goals against chances

Austria Lustenau1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Ried1 from 2.40 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1

27D. SchierlG
7F. GmeinerD
31M. MaakD
29N. PertlwieserD
3Danilo SoaresD
8D. KacuriM
11D. WeixelbraunM
20L. AfrifaM
19S. DelayeM
24S. Diarra
14P. BenjaminF

Substitutes

30P. Bohm
17A. GashiF
9L. JastremskiF
18R. VoisineD
10I. OuattaraF
23P. GrabherM
26L. Ibertsberger
39A. VerinacF
15E. ChukwuD

Coach: Markus Mader

Ried 4-2-3-1

1A. LeitnerG
4L. MalicsekD
28S. ChukwudiD
30O. SteurerD
7O. SorgD
22S. SchwabM
6Y. MaartM
12A. BajicM
10J. NasraweM
11J. RhodesM
47E. E. AisowierenF

Substitutes

77F. WimmerG
25D. KirnbauerD
26J. MayerM
18F. RossdorferM
9P. Sissoko
8M. RasnerM
19T. Lund-JensenM
33A. GoigingerD

Coach: Mario Despotovic

Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Austria Lustenau	6	1	2	3	6	11	-5	5
10	Ried	6	1	2	3	7	11	-4	5

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Ried

2 August 2026Austria Lustenau 1–1 RiedBundesliga
21 April 2025Ried 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
18 October 2024Austria Lustenau 1–1 Ried2. Liga
6 May 2023Austria Lustenau 2–2 RiedBundesliga
29 April 2023Ried 4–4 Austria LustenauBundesliga
23 October 2022Austria Lustenau 0–0 RiedBundesliga

Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Ried