Budapest Honved vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Budapest Honved 3-3 MTK Budapest.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Budapest Honved, 26% draw, 58% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 6.25, 3.85 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Budapest Honved vs MTK Budapest
Line-ups
- 83Tomáš TujvelG
- 49Branko PauljevićD
- 44Ákos BakiD
- 52Deian BoldorD
- 11Szilveszter HangyaD
- 8Ádam SomogyiM
- 5Dominik CsontosM
- 7Ákos ZuigéberM
- 30Tamás SomogyiM
- 40Ádam SzamosiM
- 19Adi AlićF
- 72Kevin KállaiD
- 23Zoltán MedgyesF
- 17Patrik PinteF
- 99Istvan Mark PekarD
- 71Kevin KántorF
- 31Osman HadžikićG
- 1Gellért DúzsG
- 15Bonifác CsonkaD
- 3Pablo GarcíaD
- 1Patrik DemjénG
- 2Benedek VarjuD
- 4Ilia BeriashviliD
- 55Stipe RadićD
- 27Patrik KovácsD
- 11Gábor JurekM
- 6Mihály KataM
- 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
- 16Krisztián LászlóM
- 17Kristóf HinoraF
- 20Zalán KerezsiF
- 77György KomáromiM
- 26Vilius ArmalasD
- 10István BognárM
- 9Milán KlauszF
- 7Dániel ZsóriF
- 24Tamás FadgyasG
- 18Csaba BelényesiD
- 5Dániel HorváthD
- 13Timóteus János MikolayD
Form going into Budapest Honved vs MTK Budapest
Budapest Honved
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Kisvarda FC25 July 2026
MTK Budapest
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs MTK Budapest
- 13 July 2024MTK Budapest 4–3 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2024MTK Budapest 1–1 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 12 March 2022MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 21 November 2021Budapest Honved 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 7 August 2021MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and MTK Budapest
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Budapest Honved and MTK Budapest drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for MTK Budapest at 58% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Szamosi 15' for Budapest Honved, A. Somogyi 44' for Budapest Honved, G. Jurek 45+2' for MTK Budapest, Z. Kerezsi 53' for MTK Budapest, D. Csontos (penalty) 87' for Budapest Honved, I. Bognar 90+6' for MTK Budapest. Sent off: A. Baki (Budapest Honved) 90+4'.