Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Red Bull Salzburg, 14% draw, 11% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 1.33, 7.14 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 75% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 18Nikolas VeratschnigD
- 44Kévin BomaD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 31Dominik SchmidD
- 5Soumaïla DiabatéM
- 32Abubakr BarryM
- 23Damir RedzicM
- 30Gaoussou DiakiteM
- 43Enrique AguilarM
- 11Yorbe VertessenF
- 9Haris TabakovićF
- 19Karim KonatéF
- 15Bartosz MazurekM
- 13Frans KrätzigD
- 41Nikola SarcevicG
- 21Tim DrexlerD
- 39Leandro MorgallaD
- 14Maurits KjaergaardM
- 33Aboubacar CamaraM
- 91Ármin PécsiG
- 18Fabian WilfingerD
- 14Paul KomposchD
- 27Konstantin SchoppD
- 6Habib Anas CoulibalyD
- 28Florian GerstlD
- 23Tobias KainzM
- 4Benjamin MarkušM
- 5Youba DiarraM
- 22Marco HoffmannF
- 8Matthias PostlF
- 2Luca PazourekM
- 7Angelo GattermayerF
- 9Agustín UrrutiaF
- 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
- 11Jed DrewF
- 21Luka MarićG
- 16Magnus DalpiazD
- 19Lukas SpendlhoferD
- 17Jonas KarnerM
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 24 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg
- 17 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 5 April 2026TSV Hartberg 1–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 1 March 2026Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 16 August 2025TSV Hartberg 1–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 4 December 2024Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković70
- K. Konaté40
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1–0. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: K. Konate 89' for Red Bull Salzburg. On expected goals it finished 3.91–0.66.