1 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg

Full time1 – 0

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Red Bull Salzburg, 14% draw, 11% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 1.33, 7.14 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 15 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 75% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Red Bull Salzburg97%Draw3%TSV Hartberg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'

🔁M. Postlout: A. Gattermayer

46'

🔁F. Gerstlout: L. Pazourek

🔁Y. Vertessenout: H. Tabakovic

60'

🔁A. Barryout: K. Konate

69'

🔁E. Aguilarout: B. Mazurek

70'

71'

🔁M. Hoffmannout: A. Urrutia

🔁G. Diakiteout: F. Kratzig

80'

⚽K. Konateassist: D. Schmid

89'

90'

🔁Y. Diarraout: N. Feldhofer

90'

🔁F. Wilfingerout: J. Drew

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg

73%Possession27%

36Shots4

7On target1

19Corners2

3.91xG0.66

Goals against chances

Red Bull Salzburg1 from 3.91 xGless than the chances were worth

TSV Hartberg0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1

52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
18Nikolas VeratschnigD
44Kévin BomaD
47Valentin ZabranskyD
31Dominik SchmidD
5Soumaïla DiabatéM
32Abubakr BarryM
23Damir RedzicM
30Gaoussou DiakiteM
43Enrique AguilarM
11Yorbe VertessenF

Substitutes

9Haris TabakovićF
19Karim KonatéF
15Bartosz MazurekM
13Frans KrätzigD
41Nikola SarcevicG
21Tim DrexlerD
39Leandro MorgallaD
14Maurits KjaergaardM
33Aboubacar CamaraM

Coach: Danny Rohl

TSV Hartberg 5-3-2

91Ármin PécsiG
18Fabian WilfingerD
14Paul KomposchD
27Konstantin SchoppD
6Habib Anas CoulibalyD
28Florian GerstlD
23Tobias KainzM
4Benjamin MarkušM
5Youba DiarraM
22Marco HoffmannF
8Matthias PostlF

Substitutes

2Luca PazourekM
7Angelo GattermayerF
9Agustín UrrutiaF
95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
11Jed DrewF
21Luka MarićG
16Magnus DalpiazD
19Lukas SpendlhoferD
17Jonas KarnerM

Coach: Markus Schopp

Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Red Bull Salzburg	6	4	2	0	15	4	+11	14
6	TSV Hartberg	6	2	1	3	7	10	-3	7

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg

1 August 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
17 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
5 April 2026TSV Hartberg 1–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
1 March 2026Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
16 August 2025TSV Hartberg 1–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
4 December 2024Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg