Wolfsberger AC
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 49% Wolfsberger AC, 23% draw, 28% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.89, Red Bull Salzburg 1.41.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wolfsberger AC
- W3-0Austria Vienna2 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 1 February 2026Wolfsberger AC 0–1 Red Bull SalzburgCup
- 14 December 2025Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 13 September 2025Wolfsberger AC 3–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 27 April 2025Wolfsberger AC 2–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 23 April 2025Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 16 March 2025Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
Leading scorers
Wolfsberger AC
- G. Vrioni2 goals
- A. Schwarz1 goals
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wolfsberger AC carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.55 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wolfsberger AC W; Red Bull Salzburg W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.41 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolfsberger AC rate 0.63 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.86 and 1.59.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolfsberger AC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC against 1.41 for Red Bull Salzburg. Wolfsberger AC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.59 for Red Bull Salzburg.