Zenit
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zenit 1-2 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% Zenit, 13% draw, 10% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.30, 7.69 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Zenit 3.36, Rodina Moskva 1.24.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zenit
- W3-0away to FC Orenburg2 August 2026
- W5-0away to Akron25 July 2026
Rodina Moskva
- L2-4FC Rostov31 July 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
Zenit
- M. Glushenkov3 goals1 assists
- A. Sobolev2 goals1 assists
- Jhon Jhon1 goals1 assists
Rodina Moskva
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.36 expected goals for Zenit against 1.24 for Rodina Moskva. Zenit's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/2.58 for Rodina Moskva.