Grazer AK
vs
Austria Lustenau
The model makes it 82% Grazer AK, 12% draw, 6% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Grazer AK 3.08, Austria Lustenau 0.80.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Grazer AK
- L0-3away to Lask Linz31 July 2026
Austria Lustenau
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grazer AK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Austria Lustenau | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
- 26 November 2021Grazer AK 0–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 25 July 2021Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 12 May 2021Grazer AK 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 11 December 2020Austria Lustenau 3–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 6 June 2020Grazer AK 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 18 August 2019Austria Lustenau 0–2 Grazer AK2. Liga
Leading scorers
Grazer AK
No league goals recorded yet.
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.41 against 5.89 for Austria Lustenau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Grazer AK L; Austria Lustenau D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.08 goals for Grazer AK and 0.80 for Austria Lustenau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grazer AK rate 0.63 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Lustenau rate 0.38 and 2.59.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Austria Lustenau, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grazer AK the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Grazer AK against 0.8 for Austria Lustenau. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.59 for Austria Lustenau.