TSV Hartberg
vs
Sturm Graz
The model makes it 17% TSV Hartberg, 19% draw, 64% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.25, Sturm Graz 2.51.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
TSV Hartberg
- L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
- 10 May 2026TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 12 April 2026Sturm Graz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 30 November 2025TSV Hartberg 0–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 28 September 2025Sturm Graz 1–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 9 November 2024TSV Hartberg 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 11 August 2024Sturm Graz 2–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers
TSV Hartberg
No league goals recorded yet.
Sturm Graz
- S. Włodarczyk1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.65 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): TSV Hartberg L; Sturm Graz D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.51 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.48 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.91 and 1.38.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 2.51 for Sturm Graz. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.38 for Sturm Graz.