TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% TSV Hartberg, 19% draw, 64% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91A. PecsiG
- 18F. WilfingerD
- 14P. KomposchD
- 19L. SpendlhoferD
- 4B. MarkusD
- 6H. CoulibalyD
- 23T. KainzM
- 27K. SchoppM
- 5Y. DiarraM
- 22M. Hoffmann
- 7A. GattermayerF
- 21L. MaricG
- 28F. GerstlM
- 10O. LukicM
- 95N. FeldhoferM
- 17J. KarnerM
- 11J. DrewF
- 16M. DalpiazD
- 70C. OnuohaF
- 9A. UrrutiaF
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 5A. VallciD
- 2J. MitchellD
- 27L. BalboD
- 39L. WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
- 20S. JattaM
- 43J. HodlM
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 17S. WlodarczykF
- 22A. HelacG
- 80R. FossoM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 18E. SogloD
- 21P. PetrovicD
- 30P. KollerD
- 44N. WeiperF
- 11A. KayomboF
- 23A. MalicD
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Fenerbahçe5 August 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
- W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sturm Graz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TSV Hartberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
- 10 May 2026TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 12 April 2026Sturm Graz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 30 November 2025TSV Hartberg 0–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 28 September 2025Sturm Graz 1–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 9 November 2024TSV Hartberg 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann61
- M. Hoffman40
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sturm Graz won 2–0 at TSV Hartberg. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Weiper 69' for Sturm Graz, N. Weiper 81' for Sturm Graz. Sent off: Konstantin Schopp (TSV Hartberg) 60'. On expected goals it finished 0.28–1.48.